Good news…the times are a-changin!
Out with the old, in with the new.
I hate long range forecasts because they DO NOT reliably predict the details of each storm, and the details of each storm is what decides powder day vs. no powder day. However, long range forecasts are DECENT at predicting the overall storm track 6-8 days into the future.
After a few days of looking at the computer weather models hint at a change to the overall weather pattern, I’m ready to pull the trigger and say “Yeah, it’ll happen”.
Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, and northern Wyoming should see a lot of snow next week.
It is *possible* that some of this heavy snow could hit Tahoe, northern Utah, and the northern half of Colorado. However, there’s no guarantee for these areas as it will come down to the DETAILS of each individual storm to decide if the snow makes it far enough south.
One fly in the ointment is that the storm track coming straight off the Pacific will bring a lot of WARM moisture. Higher elevations should still see snow, but there could be times of “undeveloped snow” across lower elevations and during the warmer parts of each storm.
If you’ve been missing the snow lately, this change is a good thing!
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G’day Joel and greetings from a very sunny Sydney Australia.
We have a Steamboat trip planned for early to mid February so this is more a question regarding Feb snow fall patterns.
As a rule, do February snowfalls increase in frequency over other months ? (bearing in mind to poor start to the season so far !).
Joel Gratz Reply:
January 12th, 2012 at 11:08 PM
Hi Greg…there is no “general” rule for February, especially this season when there doesn’t seem to be a normal weather pattern to be found. Steamboat should get lots of snow over the next 7-10 days, so I bet they’ll have plenty of snow when you get out there. No way to tell where the storms will be 3-4 weeks from now, however.
Hey Joel whats your thoughts on montana and big sky end of this month? 23-27?
They are doing that epic deal for ANY Epic style pass I’ve found out. free lift tickets for renting rooms so is it worth it to head out there in that time frame? when can we start trusting those longer term forcasts? I havnt been to the big M yet and am very intrigued with some of that terrain. thanks for your help Joel, you’ve been SOLID on your forcasts this year. its the weathers fault it sucks not yours!
Joel,
If the storm track does head further south into California next week, what does that do for precip further north (WA, ID, MT)? Drag it down with it, leaving less for those areas?
Joel Gratz Reply:
January 12th, 2012 at 11:06 PM
WA/OR/ID/MT should do plenty fine next week…if the storm track goes too far south, then yes – these areas will get drier. But they look awful snowy later next week.
hey joel I do like the new powder finder stuff. Im looking at doing a trip to big sky end of this month 23-27. I see a little action headed there way next week. Any ideas if these new models will make this a worth while trip? they are honoring that epic deal to ANY epic style pass I was told. so yeah free skiing and cheap hotels. im trying to wait as long as possible for it to pile up but the deal ends in January. HAha talk to me!
Joel Gratz Reply:
January 12th, 2012 at 2:45 PM
The 23rd is still 9 days out, but I think the snow will be pretty good up there by next weekend…I’d do it, but watch the dates so you can have some flexibility.
Would you recommend a road trip to Jackson Hole/Grand Targhee this weekend?
Joel Gratz Reply:
January 12th, 2012 at 5:22 AM
Yes for fun, no for powder. GT had 4″ on Tue and JH had 6″, but not snow Wed-Sun. Next chance of snow will be Sun night through Monday. Not a big storm, but maybe a few inches. Actually, Colorado could do better on Monday than up there. JH might be on the crowded side for the holiday weekend, but Grand Targhee is always a lot less crowded…
Joel, I hear you but I will take a speculative, unreliable, long-range forecast of “it might snow” over a 100% accurate, short-range forecast of “it ain’t gonna snow” any time.
The term “undeveloped snow” rocks! I really enjoy reading your content Joel.
So, does this mean less snow for BC in late January? Live in CO but booked a trip to Whistler in late Jan to chase some snow. Bad timing?
Joel Gratz Reply:
January 12th, 2012 at 5:17 AM
Too far out to know…
What is this “undeveloped snow” jargon?
Joel Gratz Reply:
January 11th, 2012 at 10:02 AM
Another word for rain. I don’t like using that word during winter!
Richard Bothwell Reply:
January 11th, 2012 at 10:46 AM
Please continue to use terms such as undeveloped snow, warm precipitation event, etc.
Please refrain from using that other word between Nov 15 and May 1.
Thank you.
looks like chris from snowforecast beat ya this time
Joel Gratz Reply:
January 11th, 2012 at 10:06 AM
That’s fine by me. He speculates a lot, and always says “we’ll be watching”. After earlier this season when the models showed a change and the change never happened, I didn’t want to cry wolf one more time. Chris is a good forecaster – not taking anything away from him. But any meteorologist can forecast a pattern change and be right eventually… Plus, this change doesn’t necessarily mean big snow for Colorado…that’s still very uncertain as I wrote above.
Dylan Reply:
January 11th, 2012 at 12:24 PM
After years of reading SF, I can say that Open Snow is about 10000000x better. Keep it up Joel!
Joel Gratz Reply:
January 12th, 2012 at 5:19 AM
Thanks Dylan – we aim to have a good time around here, and make the site as easy to use as possible. By the way, check recent & predicted powder across the country (including the longer-term trend) on our newly released, super-fantastic Powder Finder: http://opensnow.com/powder