Arizona Daily Snow

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By Lee Born, Meteorologist Posted 5 years ago November 14, 2018

Ski/Ride Season Welcome 2018-'19

Summary

It was an optimistic start to the snow season as we received some early October snow. Unfortunately though strong high pressure has shut down our storm track here in November. Cold temperatures have allowed the Arizona Snowbowl to make snow and opening day is this Friday 11/16. While no exciting storms are in the two-week forecast there is hope for a pattern change. A weak El Nino year winter is forthcoming which will hopefully translate to a fun season.

Short Term Forecast

Strong west coast ridging will lead to a continuation of dry and mild weather into mid next week. High pressure begins to break down with a weak storm forecast for Thanksgiving day. 

Expect machine-made snow on limited terrain at the Arizona Snowbowl. The following is from their facebook announcement.

OPENING DAY TRAILS ANNOUNCED! The Grand Canyon Express chairlift, Arizona’s only high-speed six-person lift, will be open from 9am to 4pm, providing access to four intermediate trails including Midway Catwalk, Logjam, Wild Turkey, and Round Up, plus three terrain park features. Little Spruce, the conveyor lift, will offer access to beginner terrain on Hart Prairie.

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Extended Forecast

High pressure breaks down next Wednesday or Thursday as a weak storm enters Arizona. Light snow at best with this storm. Models diverge as we get into next weekend with the GFS not showing much while the Euro is advertising storm potential. We will keep a close eye on this and revisit next week.

As far as the winter outlook out of NOAA. The NWS Flagstaff prepared this following presentation.

As the graph shows, weak El Nino years don't always pan out. Though the most recent 2014-'15 season was super fun. It was a wet season with rain and snow in town, which turned out hunky dory for the mountain.

My feeling is we are going to be off to a sluggish start here. Hopefully I am wrong on that. The next couple of weeks will give me a much better feel of how things will shake out in December.

Think Snow!
Lee

About Our Forecaster

Lee Born

Meteorologist

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