The first significant winter storm of the season is winding up off central CA today. The storm track brings the cold front and associated moisture into AZ late Tuesday into early Wednesday.  

Liquid water amounts being being advertised by the GFS are roughly in the 0.50" - 1.0" range, mainly along and south of the Rim into the White Mts. Notice the precarious hole around the SF Peaks? 

Now if we look at the same data from the Euro Model. Advertising a little less water with the edge of serious precip nervously close to the Peaks.

The only explanation for this is the track of the low across south central AZ. This is typically plenty close enough to generate good snow mechanics on the Peaks. Therefore I am still hopeful for a decent dump.

If we look at the snowfall from each model neither are putting much focus on the Peaks. With the GFS being particularly weak.

Again a little baffled by this. Euro much snowier for the Whites and Sunrise, advertising a foot, as snow continues in eastern AZ through Wednesday.

So, what's the freakin' forecast..haha. I'm going with at least 6" at Snowbowl and optimistically up to a foot. Powder day Wednesday with snow tapering off through the morning.

Beyond this storm high pressure builds back into the region through roughly 1/20 with chances for another storm beyond. See you up there.

Lee