The Colorado Daily Snow  

On the eastern plains, temperatures are cooler and the winds have shifted and are now blowing from the east. Winds over the entire state are much lighter today compared to yesterday, and this seems to be helping fire fighting efforts. The current satellite image shows a few higher, wispy cirrus clouds traversing the state and this is hindering my ability to see any smoke from the fires. A combination of news reports, webcams, and satellite imagery seems to show that the fire near Rocky Mountain National Park has settled down somewhat, as has the fire near the Royal Gorge. This doesn't mean these fires are contained, just that they aren't as active with the cooling temperatures overnight and the lighter winds.

The fire in the Black Forest is another matter and satellite images still show quite a bit of smoke in this area. Of the three major fires, this is the one that affects the most people.

Thursday will bring stronger winds for the whole state and a bit more moisture for the eastern plains. Wind is the worst factor and will likely overwhelm any positive we get from the added moisture in the air.

Winds should settle down again on Friday and stay relatively calm through the weekend.

A few surges of cooler air will affect the eastern plains later this week, on Saturday, and again on Monday. Let's hope this in addition to the moisture helps fire fighting efforts somewhat, though these cold fronts bring changing wind directions and that makes containment difficult.

In other news, the added moisture on the eastern plains behind Monday's cold front could help produce a few severe storms in northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming. The winds in the atmosphere look favorable for rotating storms, which means that I might go out storm chasing. More on that later...

JOEL GRATZ

Fire season has begun in Colorado. There are three fires burning now (3pm) that I know of:

+ A fire on the west side of Rocky Mountain National Park north of Grand Lake. This was a small lightning-caused fire started on Monday. Today's high winds likely helped the fire to grow quickly.

+ A fire just east of Colorado Springs.

+ A fire that has already grown to 200 acres near Royal Gorge, just west of Canon City. It seems that the Royal Gorge park is away from the fire for now and everyone has been safely evacuated.

More information on these fires can be found from TheDenverChannel.com, 9News.com, and DenverPost.com.

The likely reason today brought an increase in fire activity is the wind, which is gusting over 30mph in many locations. A storm to the north of Colorado is responsible for bringing both the wind and extremely dry air that we're seeing today.

The rest of the week should not be as windy as today, though there will still be times with breezier conditions with winds from the southwest. Also, the eastern part of Colorado should see a brief surge of cooler air and winds from the east on Saturday morning and perhaps a stronger surge on Monday. I don't think these cool surges will bring any rain to areas near today's fires, but hopefully the increased moisture in the air will slow the fires and a change in wind direction will blow the fires back onto themselves. I'll talk more about these cool surges in the coming days and the forecast become more trustworthy.

Let's hope the fire crews can make quick progress and that these fires don't affect many (any!) structures or people.

Here is a satellite image from this afternoon showing all three fires. Look to the right of each arrow to see the smoke plume blowing away from the fires to the northeast (winds from the southwest).

And here is the satellite image in motion, showing the plumes of smoke. The smoke from the Rocky Mountain National Park fire seems to have relaxed a bit...hoping this is good news.

JOEL GRATZ

I'm thrilled to share the news ... we have a 5-page story in Outside Magazine's July issue. See a teaser here or pickup a copy and turn to page 96. Thanks for your support over the years and here's to many more seasons of snow forecasting and chasing!

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There are some lightning strikes over Colorado this afternoon, and that's not good. The lightning is coming from storms that are unable to produce much or any rain because it evaporates before it hits the ground. This means that if a lightning strike ignites a fire on the ground, there won't be any water coming from the cloud to put it out. Be extra careful and vigilent these next few weeks (months) when it comes to fire. If you see a fire, report it immediately, and be careful with any fires (if they're allowed) and cigarettes as it only takes a spark and some wind to create a massive fire in a matter of minutes.

Here is the 230pm map of recent lightning strikes...

There are more clouds today because there is more moisture in the atmosphere. Yesterday (Sunday) was a nearly cloudless day for the state, but thankfully that changed for us today. Yes, additional moisture in the upper levels (above about 18,000 feet) does mean a better chance of storms that produce lightning and no rain, but it also means additional cloud cover which will keep the temperatures a bit lower than they could have been. With highs in the lower elevations between 95 to 100+, any degree of cooling helps, at least a little.

Stay cool out there, (lower elevations of Colorado), and head to the hills to escape the heat! Most of the rest of the week won't be quite this warm, but the general pattern of hot and dry weather is here to stay. There is still likely to be a cool down into the 80s for at least a day or two this weekend or early next week, but the models are very unsure of themselves right now. The American GFS model is flip-flopping between not much of a cool down or a big cool down into the 70s for Monday, while the steadier and often more accurate European is focusing on continued warm and dry weather with little chance for cooler air. We'll see...and hope for the best!

JOEL GRATZ

I'm thrilled to share the news ... we have a 5-page story in Outside Magazine's July issue. See a teaser here or pickup a copy and turn to page 96. Thanks for your support over the years and here's to many more seasons of snow forecasting and chasing!

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There are no clouds over Colorado this morning. The white spots on the satellite image show snow over the higher peaks.

We will see virtually no precipitation for the next week. There could be a few dry storms that pop up here and there, but the atmosphere near the ground is very dry so any rain that does form in the clouds will likely evaporate before reaching the ground. Temperatures will be in the 90s for most lower elevation locations throughout the next week. Two weak cold fronts will pass through northern Colorado this week, with one on Tuesday afternoon and another on Friday night. Following these fronts, temperatures should cool for the northern half of the state about 5-10 degrees (back into the 80s) on Wednesday and Saturday / Sunday.

While heavy snow during the spring months lessened the drought in northeastern Colorado near the mountains, the plains further east were not so lucky. The worst of the drought is in southeastern Colorado.

The soil is so dry that ranchers and farmers are seeing conditions similar to the dust bowl of the 1930s. Last Tuesday (June 4th), a dust storm rolled across southeastern Colorado (see more pictures and a map here).

There have been more of these storms recently, and unfortunately there is no appreciable rain in the forecast for eastern Colorado over the next two weeks.

JOEL GRATZ

I'm thrilled to share the news ... we have a 5-page story in Outside Magazine's July issue. See a teaser here or pickup a copy and turn to page 96. Thanks for your support over the years and here's to many more seasons of snow forecasting and chasing!

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A weak cold front moved through the front range earlier this morning (did you feel the 10 degree temperature drop and the burst of wind from the north?). This front will keep temperatures on the comfortable side today with highs on the plains in the lower 80s. While the entire state will be dry, there could be a few showers between 1-3pm along the continental divide (north and along I-70) and out to the plains. This shouldn't ruin any plans, but keep an eye on radar.

Sunday will be warmer and dry, and all of next week will be dry with temperatures at the lower elevations breaching the 90 degree mark each day.

The good news is that both longer-range models (American GFS and European) are consistently showing a cool down for the eastern plains next Saturday and Sunday with the chance of some precipitation. Keep this good news in the back of your mind if you feel yourself getting angry at the warm weather this week:-)

Enjoy this beautiful weekend!

JOEL