Now on Sunday morning, we are waking up to sunny skies, cold temperature (single digits below zero) and lots of snow that fell between Saturday early morning and Saturday night.

The highest totals were generally at mountains favored by winds from the west (Beaver Creek, Cooper, Aspen/Snowmass, Monarch, Silverton, Telluride). The totals that I show below are available on OpenSnow throughout our site/app as soon as the resorts update (usually between 5-6 am each morning), so you never need to wait for me to post these numbers in the Colorado Daily Snow. I post the information because it’s an excuse to highlight the snowfall around the state!

Northern Mountains
Beaver Creek - 12”
Cooper - 11”
Breckenridge - 10”
Winter Park - 10”
Copper - 10”
Eldora - 8”
Keystone - 8”
Vail - 8”
Arapahoe Basin - 7”
Granby - 5”
Loveland - 5"
Steamboat - 3”

Central Mountains
Snowmass - 16”
Monarch - 14”
Aspen Highlands - 12”
Aspen Mountain - 12”
Powderhorn - 9”
Buttermilk - 8”
Crested Butte - 7”
Sunlight - 5”

Southern Mountains
Silverton - 12”
Telluride - 11”
Cimarron Mountain Club - 9.75"
Purgatory - 6”
Wolf Creek - 4”

While most of the above snow fell before lifts closed on Saturday afternoon, some of it, especially around Aspen, Telluride, and Silverton, fell after lifts closed on Saturday, so there will be plenty of fresh turns in these areas on Sunday with leftovers elsewhere.

Now on Sunday morning, the visible satellite images shows no clouds. The white color on the image below is snow cover on the ground.

While Sunday will be dry, the next storm is already on the way. You can see it as the swirl (area of black) to the west of Washington State in the upper-left part of the image.

This storm will move toward Colorado, and will then reverse course and head back to the southwest. You can see it as the blue area on the image below. Once the storm heads to the southwest, it’ll stay there for most of the week, then will move back toward Colorado on Thursday as another storm from the north picks it up. If you watch until the end of the animation below, you can see yet another storm moving in early next week. If you can’t see the animation, click here: http://opsw.co/2H7x4Rm

The forecast for the next week and long looks good, with a storm this week and early next week, on the heels of two storms this past week.

Two weeks ago, the longer-range forecast didn’t look this favorable. Below you can see the actual value and the forecast for the Pacific-North American (PNA) Pattern. Negative numbers generally indicate stormier weather in the west (we want negative numbers). The lines show previous forecasts with the white dots showing the current forecast. You can see that over the past two weeks, many versions of the model indicated that the PNA would go positive, only to then reverse course and keep it negative. This is why we don’t look at the details of forecasts beyond about 10-days because many times the models do not even get the general pattern correct at this lead time.

Ok, to the details of the week ahead…

Sunday will be dry.

Expect snow from Monday morning through Tuesday morning with the deepest accumulations in the southern mountains. The winds will blow from the south and southwest, which is only favorable for the southern mountains. Wolf Creek could get 12-20 inches, other areas likely Purgatory and Silverton could be in the 8-15 inch range. Any other mountain across the state will need some luck as a south wind is not favorable outside of Wolf Creek, Purgatory, and Silverton. That doesn’t mean that it won’t snow elsewhere, just that we will rely on intense and randomly-placed bursts and lines of precipitation to bring the snow to other areas, and the exact location of these features is impossible to predict.

The winds from the south will bring lots of moisture (good for snow potential) but also warm temperatures and we could see snow levels rising to 7,000-8,000 feet. This is still below the base of most mountains, so most areas should see all snow, just expect thicker, denser snow due to the warm temperatures.

Also, for those of you following along with the models, you’ll notice that the CAIC 4km WRF has done an amazingly good job during the past two storms. I have been impressed. However, it, likely many models, has a bias to forecast too much snow for mountains that are not favored by southerly winds. I think this model, and others, see the moisture coming into Colorado with a southerly wind and it over-forecasts snow.

For example, the CAIC 4km WRF is forecasting 12 inches at Aspen Highlands on Monday and Monday night. There is a tiny chance that this happens if a random line of precipitation stalls over Aspen, but otherwise, the chance of a foot of snow at Aspen with a wind from the south is very, very, very low. All of this is to say that it’s great to look at the forecast from all the models, but you need to know their biases rather than simply trust anything they say. I have learned during the last two storms to give a lot of weight to the CAIC 4km WRF when winds are from the northwest and west, but it still shows an over-forecasting bias when storms bring winds from the south.

Summary – if you want powder early this week, ski Purgatory or Wolf Creek on Monday-day and/or Tuesday morning (Silverton is closed early-week and opens Thursday-Sunday ... so, uh, Thursday will be deep!). Other mountains could get hit as well with random showers, so keep your eye on webcams but keep your expectations on the lower side.

On Tuesday morning the snow should end and most of Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry.

The next chance for snow will be from Wednesday night through Thursday night when a storm from the northwest merges with the cut-off storm to our southwest. Because the wind direction will transition from south to northwest during the storm, all mountains should get snow. My early thought is 4-8 inches with the best chance for powder on Thursday-day and/or Friday morning. This storm will bring in colder air so the snow should be fluffier on Thursday afternoon and night.

On Friday and Saturday, we should see a break in the snow.

Then another storm will arrive on Sunday night (ish) with snow possibly falling through Monday or Tuesday. This could mean that President’s day has snow, but that is 7-8 days away, so too soon to discuss details.

How about this active pattern, eh? Two storms last week, two storms this week, and at least one storm the following week. We’ll take it!

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

* While some of you find my forecasts humorously funny or disappointingly funny, sadly I was not invited to perform at the Laugh Festival in Aspen this year (that's a joke ... I am a weather forecaster, not a comedian:-). But a pairing of skiing and laughter is hard to beat, so this might be of interest to you: https://www.wheeleroperahouse.com/laugh-fest/

* I will be giving a talk in Crested Butte on Friday, February 16th from 600-800pm at the Crested Butte Town Hall. This will be an educational talk about weather forecasting in Colorado, with about 1 hour of general information, a short break, and then another hour of more technical discussion for you weather nerds out there. The price is a $15 donation to the Crested Butte Avalanche Center, and that gets you into the event and also gets you free beer! Hope to see you there!

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains