Before looking ahead, I wanted to look back at the storm on Thursday night and Friday morning. I look back to try to learn about why a storm produced more snow at some mountains and not others, and then we can take this knowledge forward and apply it to future storms.

The region with the deepest snow (8-12 inches) on Thursday night and Friday morning was along the northern divide, from Cameron Pass in the north to Rocky Mountain National Park, Eldora, Winter Park, and Loveland. The only models that strongly favored this region in advance of the storm was the University of Utah ensemble forecast which predicted 10-12 inches around Cameron Pass. I think that this region did well based on its proximity to the departing storm, which allowed for a bit more energy from the storm to help lift the air. Otherwise, the wind direction, which is super important for most storms, didn’t seem to be the single determining factor for this area.

Looking ahead, following dry weather on Saturday, we’ll see a few showers on Saturday night, mostly for areas that are further west (Powderhorn, southern mountains), and then all mountains will see snow on Sunday.

The forecast below shows the predicted radar from Sunday at 600 am through Monday at noon. The time at the top of the image is given in "Zulu", and subtract 6 hours to convert to Colorado time. If you do not see the animation and only a still image, click here to see the animation: http://opsw.co/2u0bpZ8

The best powder will be on Sunday midday and afternoon, and again on Monday morning.

The mountains with the best chance for powder on Sunday midday and afternoon will be further south and west, including Powderhorn, Sunlight, Snowmass, Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory, and Wolf Creek.

All other mountains will see some snow on Sunday afternoon, but the brunt of the snow should fall after lifts close on Sunday, so Monday morning will offer the deepest powder.

As the storm moves to the east of Colorado on Sunday night, it will strength over southeast Colorado and southwestern Kansas. This is the perfect location for the storm to produce strong northwest winds over Colorado. Along with wrap-around moisture and perfect temperatures (cooling to about 10F at mountain top), we should see a few surprisingly deep totals on Sunday night, and the snow should be super fluffy on Monday morning.

Mountains that are most strongly favored for deep snow on Sunday night and Monday morning are those favored by northwest flow, including Powderhorn, Telluride, Silverton, Irwin, Aspen Highlands, Vail, Breckenridge, Loveland, Winter Park, and areas along the northern divide around the Indian Peaks, Rocky Mountain National Park, and Cameron Pass.

My suggestion is to target the areas I mentioned above, and to closely watch webcams and SNOTEL stations on Sunday night and get up early on Monday morning to get to the place with the deepest pow.

The forecast below is from the CAIC high-resolution 4km WRF model. Lots of red on the map, with is 10+ inches.

I am not just excited about Sunday night’s storm because of the model forecasts. The combination of factors on Sunday night (storm track, wind direction, temperature) is something that I have seen a few times in the past that has resulted in surprisingly deep and fluffy snow the next morning. While all mountains should get 4-8 inches, a few spots should outperform and offer a memorable morning on Monday.

Following lingering snow showers through Monday morning, we should see dry weather on Monday afternoon and Monday night.

A weak system might move over the northern mountains on Tuesday and Tuesday night, so there could be a sneaker powder day on Tuesday morning with a few inches of fresh.

Wednesday will likely be dry.

The next storm should bring snow on Thursday, Friday, and perhaps into Saturday. Snow totals could be significant (6-12 inches?) with one or two powder days during this time.

Between next Saturday (March 24) and the end of March, there will be storminess close to Colorado. We might see many drier days as a ridge of high pressure develops along the west coast, but we could also see storms hit us from the north or south as the ridge will stay over the west coast and only edge into Colorado. Bottomline is that we’ll likely see more snow before the month is over.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains