Colorado Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Colorado Daily Snow

By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 5 years ago September 24, 2018

Monday showers, then dry until October, then a storm next week?

Summary

On Monday morning and midday, the northern half of Colorado will see showers, and then dry weather will return through Saturday. Temperatures will be coolest on Tuesday and Wednesday then will increase until Saturday. As we head into next week, it’s possible that we could see a storm (with some snow).

Short Term Forecast

Monday morning’s radar animation tells the story. A storm to our north is dragging a line of showers over northern and central Colorado.

In addition to a few lightning strikes as this line of showers moves across Colorado, there could be a few snowflakes at the highest elevations.

The rest of Monday will see a few additional showers over the northern half of Colorado.

Then Tuesday through Saturday will be dry. The coolest temperatures of the week will be on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the warmest will be on Saturday.

Extended Forecast

There is finally something interesting to talk about in the longer-range forecast, so let’s get to it.

The next three maps are an average of 51 model versions, lest you think I am cherrypicking just one model run from one model.

While the seven-day snow forecast (through September 30) shows nothing significant for Colorado…

…the 15-day snow forecast does paint at least a few inches of snow over Colorado’s higher mountains.

Most models now agree that starting on or just after Sunday, September 30th, moisture will increase over the western US and a storm (or two) could convert some of this moisture into rain or snow.

The 10-day temperature forecast (for 11,000 feet near Copper Mountain) shows a decline in temperatures after Saturday, which is indicative of increased moisture and a chance for precipitation.

The next graphic shows the precipitation forecast for Crested Butte, roughly in the middle of Colorado.

Each horizontal line represents one of 51 model versions, and time is across the bottom going from today (left) to October 3 (right).

As we get into October (right side of the graphic), we see more bright colors, which indicate precipitation. Counting up the model versions that have significant precipitation, we see that about 50% show ‘something interesting’ happening next week.

For a storm (or storms) that are 7+ days away, having 50% of the model versions show something significant is actually respectable, so this bears watching.

In terms of snowfall, well, most models show that temperatures will be cold enough for some snow accumulation later next week, though right now temperatures are NOT forecast to be cold enough for significant snow in the valleys. The snow forecast from the same 51 model versions only shows about a 20% chance for snow.

We should use these 7+ day forecasts to understand the trend in the forecast, which in this case is a decent chance for precipitation later next week and maybe air that’s cold enough for some snow.

We should NOT use these 7+ day forecasts to say exactly what’s going to happen. In fact, even though we’re looking at 51 model versions, past research has found that the actual weather in the future is many times outside of the range of these 51 models versions.

The bottom line is that we could have some fun weather later next week, and I’ll keep an eye on it.

Thanks for reading … next update on Wednesday, September 26!

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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