The big story on Saturday morning is that Wolf Creek, in the southwestern mountains, will start spinning their lifts (only on weekends for now). Wolf received 30 inches of dense, surfy snow during the past week, and conditions look fun (with the standard caveat that it is the early season and the base is shallow).

Saturday will be a dry and sunny day. The Saturday morning radar animation shows no precipitation in Colorado.

Saturday night and Sunday is when the next storm will bring snow and very cold air. I have high confidence in the cold air and low confidence in the snow amounts.

Take one more look at the radar animation above. The snow that will hit Colorado on Saturday night and Sunday will be produced by a combination of the storm currently over Montana and the storm over Southern California.

The uncertainty in the forecast comes from trying to figure out if and how these storms will merge together.

My best estimate at this point is about 1-3 inches west of the divide, 4-8 inches near and east of the divide (Rocky Mountain National Park, Eldora, Echo, Monarch), and some wildcard spots near and east of the divide that could grab 10+ inches if everything comes together perfectly.

The average snow forecast from 51 versions of the European model shows the areas with the greatest potential, east of the divide.

One wildcard factor during the storm will be the jet stream overhead, which helps to produce narrow bands of intense snow which significantly increases accumulations. I noted on the image above the approximate location of where these bands could show up, but I have low confidence in their exact location. For example, while a wind from the north during the storm is not favorable for intense snow over Summit County, if a band sets up over this area, accumulations could increase from 1-3 inches to 3-6+ inches.

Also, a big wildcard is around Wolf Creek and the southern mountains. If the storm from the north and the storm from the southwest merge just right, the jet stream will combine with a lot of moisture and could produce hefty snow totals.

Taking a look at the details for Wolf Creek, the University of Utah graphic below, showing multiple versions of the American GFS model and Canadian model, forecasts a range of snow from 0-12 inches with a few outliers to 18 inches (black rectangle). This is a MASSIVE amount of uncertainty in the forecast when the storm is only 24-36 hours away.

To recap:

* All mountains will see snow Saturday night through Sunday evening.

* Most mountains will get 1-3 inches because a wind from the north and east is not favorable for the majority of places in Colorado.

* Mountains near and east of the divide, around Wolf Creek, and south to New Mexico have the greatest odds of 4-8+ inches.

* If a narrow band of intense snow sits over a certain area, that location could get 10+ inches.

* Wolf Creek is the only mountain that will be open this weekend. They might receive 2-4 inches by the end of Sunday, so there might be a bit of fresh powder while the lifts are spinning, though it looks like the best chance for deeper snow, if it happens, would occur after lifts close on Sunday afternoon (Wolf will not be open on Monday).

* Snow will also accumulate in the cities around the Denver metro because the air will be very cold.

Following the storm, Monday will be cold and dry.

Next week, expect cool weather to hang around but a decent amount of sunshine as well. A stalled piece of energy over the southwest will likely bring showers to Colorado from Wednesday through the end of the week, with the best chance for accumulating snow possible over the southern mountains.

The following week from October 22-26 looks like it will be warmer and on the drier side.

Then maybe we’ll see our next storm closer to the end of the month.

Thanks for reading…next update on Sunday, October 14.

JOEL GRATZ

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

* October 18 in Colorado Springs at Ute & Yeti starting at 630pm. Beer & food available for purchase. Free to attend! Details here.

* October 25 in Golden at Powder7 ski shop starting at 630pm. Free to attend! Details here.

* November 1 in Boulder at Neptune Mountaineering starting at 600pm. Free to attend! There will be happy hour, my talk, the short film “Abandoned” about lost ski areas, and a raffle with REALLY good prizes. Details here.

* Early November in Summit County

* November 28 in Vail

* December 5 in Denver

OpenSummit

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains