Colorado Daily Snow
By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 5 years ago October 24, 2018
Showers through Thursday, next storm around Halloween
Summary
Expect a few more high-elevation flakes on Wednesday and Thursday, then Friday through Monday will be mostly dry. Next week, it is likely that we’ll see a storm around Halloween with cool temperatures through early November.
Short Term Forecast
Yesterday, Tuesday, was dry for most of the state, most of the time. But there were a few high-elevation snow showers that left a coating to 1-2 inches across some of the higher mountains.
On Tuesday night and now on Wednesday morning, another wave of showers is moving through, mostly over the southeastern part of Colorado. Again, temperatures are warm so the snow level is high.
For the rest of Wednesday expect a few additional showers and also sunshine as the cloudiness from our current storm pushes off to the east. The satellite image below shows these clouds as the blue colors heading east out of Colorado.
On Thursday a weak storm will sneak through during the afternoon and evening and this likely means that we’ll see a few more showers. Temperatures will be cooler, so any snow that does fall could get down to 8,000-9,000 feet, which is near or below the base of most ski areas.
For Friday through Monday, most of Colorado will be dry and sunny. A storm to our northeast could push clouds and a few flurries over the northern mountains at times, but snow accumulations should be little to nothing. Models do show a push of cold air on Sunday morning for areas near and east of the divide, so a little something to keep an eye on this weekend.
Extended Forecast
Pay attention to next Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday as the likely time that we’ll see a storm with cooler temperatures and snow potential for a lot of Colorado.
The average of 51 versions of the European model indicate the storm potential during the middle and end of next week as high temperatures will be much cooler than the next seven days (see the red box).
The average of 51 versions of the European model also shows that the highest chances for snow will be roughly between October 30 and November 3.
And looking at the general weather pattern predicted by the average of 51 versions the European model, we see a blue blob over Colorado, which indicates storminess on or around Halloween.
Perfect. So we just take the model average and call it good, right?
Not so fast!
That model average is made up of 51 slightly different versions of the European model. While the average of these model versions is useful when looking for an indication of storminess, the actual weather that we’ll see will not be an average of many options. In other words, even though we can have high confidence for a storm during the middle of next week, we should NOT have high confidence in exactly what that storm will look like.
The image below shows the weather pattern prediction by 1 of the 51 versions of the European model. Notice how the storm cuts off from the main west-to-east flow of weather and does its own thing over the southwest. This storm track would still give us snow in Colorado, but it might come a bit later and maybe favor the southern and eastern mountains.
Comparing the two weather pattern forecasts above, take note that while the average weather pattern forecast (top image) gives us confidence that a storm is coming, a forecast from just one model version (bottom image) shows us that the details of the storm are far from certain.
Looking at other models, like the American GFS and Canadian, they also show storminess around Halloween like the European model above.
So look for cooler and snowier weather during the middle or end of next week, and keep in mind that we’ll be fine-tuning the forecast for many days to come.
I’ll keep you updated and thanks for reading!
Next update on Thursday, October 25.
JOEL GRATZ
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Cool things you might like!
* Get to see heli-skiing in virtual reality using an Oculus headset. I tried it last week and it was actually super cool to feel like you were in a helicopter and skiing with friends on big slopes, and it was the first time that doing something in virtual reality felt like a real value and not just a gimmick. Headsets will be available (as well as complimentary food & drink) at the CMH Heli-Ski event in Denver on Wednesday, October 24th. RSVP here.
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My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!
* October 25 in Golden at Powder7 Ski Shop starting at 630pm. Free to attend! Details here.
* October 30 in Nederland at Salto Coffee Works starting at 630pm. Beer and food available for purchase. Free to attend!
* November 1 in Boulder at Neptune Mountaineering starting at 600pm. There will be happy hour, my talk, the short film “Abandoned” about lost ski areas, and a raffle with REALLY good prizes. Tickets to the event are $10 and include two raffle entries and proceeds go to Friends of CAIC!
* November 9 in Breckenridge/Frisco area. Details soon.
* November 28 in Vail.
* December 5 in Denver
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Geography Key
Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass
East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn
Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains