This past Monday through Wednesday a storm brought showers and light snow accumulations to many mountains. With warm temperatures, most accumulations were at the upper part of most ski areas.

As has been the case so far this month, Wolf Creek reported the most snow with a total of 9 inches from Monday through Wednesday. This amount most likely accumulated at the mid and upper part of the ski area, near and above 11,000 feet. A nearby SNOTEL (automated weather station) site confirmed that a 9-inch measurement at the ski area was reasonable.

Thursday will start dry.

Thursday afternoon through Friday at dawn will bring showers and light accumulations. Temperatures will be cooler compared to earlier this week so the snow level should lower to 8,000-9,000 feet. The animation below shows the predicted precipitation from Thursday at 6am to Friday at 6pm. The showers are light on Thursday night, but they are there if you look closely.

Friday through Monday should be dry. I can’t rule out a few flurries in the northern mountains as weak storm energy passes to our north. The northern mountains will also see gusty winds on Friday through Saturday.

The next series of storms will target Colorado from Tuesday, October 30 and Monday, November 5.

The animation below shows the precipitation forecast from the average of 51 versions of the European model. The forecast starts on Monday, October 29 and ends on Monday, November 5. Do not look too closely at the details because the forecast will change. Just focus on the uptick in precipitation between about October 30 through November 5. The date is listed at the top of the image.

When we add up the potential snowfall from the average of many model versions, we see the possibility for 10+ inches between October 30 to November 5. That’s good enough for me to get somewhat excited about later next week, though of course, the forecast details will change many times between now and then.

The University of Utah ensemble forecast below, showing multiple versions of the American GFS and Canadian models, also agrees with the European model as snow should begin on October 30th or October 31st. BUT, look at the range of possibilities just for the first day of the stormy period, anything from 0 inches to 15 inches. That should give you an idea that it’s far too soon to lock in our forecast for exactly how this storm will behave.

The main point is to expect cooler and stormy weather across the western US and Rockies between October 30 and November 5. There’s a chance we could see multiple storms target Colorado during this time, or a single main storm could drop south of Colorado and only target parts of the state, or really anything in between. It’s fun to get excited for snow potential 5-7 days away, but keep an open mind as to the details of the forecast.

I’ll keep you updated and thanks for reading! Next update on Friday, October 26.

JOEL GRATZ

Podcasts!

* New! Wagner Skis launched a podcast with guests like pro skiers Angel Collinson, Tommy Moe, and Chris Davenport, hosted by veteran ski journalist Jason Blevins. Subscribe and/or download the episodes.

* New! I was interviewed a few weeks ago by Aspen Entrepreneurs. If you’re curious about the origin story of OpenSnow, my thoughts on the upcoming winter and lots of other details about the business of OpenSnow and forecasting snow across Colorado, give it a listen! Go to my episode.

 

Voting!

* New! Don’t worry, I am not going to preach about HOW you should vote (but please DO vote). Transportation funding is a big issue for us skiers, and I-70 is a focal point. There are two transportation-related propositions on the ballot, Proposition 109 and 110. Learn the similarities and differences about both amendments. Also, if Prop 110 passes, it would help to fund multiple projects on I-70 including at Floyd Hill, around Silverthorne and on Westbound Vail Pass (map of all projects). Again, I am a weather scientist and not an expert in state transportation funding so I will not preach about the details of these propositions. I just wanted to share that these propositions will impact a lot of us over the next decade and we should all spend some time learning about them.

 

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

* Tonight! October 25 in Golden at Powder7 Ski Shop starting at 630pm. Free to attend! Details here.

* October 30 in Nederland at Salto Coffee Works starting at 630pm. Beer and food available for purchase. Free to attend!

* Updated! November 1 in Boulder at Neptune Mountaineering starting at 600pm. There will be happy hour, my talk, the short film “Abandoned” about lost ski areas, and a raffle with REALLY good prizes. Tickets to the event are $10 and include two raffle entries and proceeds go to Friends of CAIC!

* November 9 in Breckenridge/Frisco area. Details soon.

* November 28 in Vail.

* December 5 in Denver

 

OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains