Storm #1: Recap

Wednesday morning’s post provided detailed snowfall totals for the storm on Tuesday and Tuesday night, so click back to that for more info.

While the snow ended on Wednesday morning for the northern and central mountains, snow continued through Wednesday midday for Colorado’s southern mountains and New Mexico’s northern mountains. Below are updated snow totals for these areas:

Wolf Creek, Colorado: 16”

Cuchara, Colorado (non-operating ski area): 16”

Taos, New Mexico: 14”

Ski Santa Fe, New Mexico: 10”

The clouds cleared at Wolf Creek on Wednesday afternoon revealing a scene that looked like mid-winterer. Fun fact – it took until mid-January of last season to equal the amount of snow on the ground right now at Wolf Creek (measured by Snow Water Equivalent, or SWE). In other words, last year was well below average, and this year is starting well above average.

Also in southern Colorado, the abandoned area of Cuchara received about 16 inches based on a local SNOTEL site as well as local reports. A group of residents is working to turn this little-known area into a fun backcountry designation and I wish them luck! While the cam image below is helpful to see that it snowed, yesterday I mentioned to a local resident that I hope a business at the base of the old ski area puts up cam with a good view of the hill. The more cams the better!

And finally in New Mexico, reports ranged from about 6-14 inches, and after last season’s severe snow drought it’s great to see them getting flakes!

Storm #2: Right now through Friday

Following dry weather on Wednesday afternoon, snow returned on Wednesday night to the northern and central mountains. Thursday morning cams show 1-2 inches at most northern and central mountains with 3 inches at Copper. Snow should continue through Thursday mid-morning and then may turn more showery.

Expect waves of snow showers to continue over the northern and central mountains through Friday mid-morning with a total accumulation of 3-6+ inches including the couple inches that has already fallen as of Thursday at sunrise.

The high-resolution NAM-WRF 3km model shows the waves of snow, mostly targeting the northern mountains.

Also during this time expect windy weather over the northern mountains with gusts in the 30-40mph+ range.

Dry on Friday afternoon

We should see 6-12 hours of non-snowy weather from Friday midday through Friday evening.

Storm #3: Friday night - Saturday night

This system will again favor the northern mountains. The latest models are showing that the storm will be stronger and will track more directly over Colorado. If this happens, 4-8+ inches is likely.

Dry on Sunday morning

Another break between systems.

Storm #4: Sunday afternoon – Tuesday or beyond

This continues to look like the strongest and coldest system. Again, the northern mountains should be favored with 5-10+ inches but all mountains will likely get snow at some point. The initial wave of intense snow could be late Sunday through Monday, then follow-on energy could keep the snow going through Tuesday with perhaps flakes into Wednesday as well.

The American GFS model shows 1-2+ FEET of total snow for all of these systems through the end of next week.

And the average of 51 versions of the European model also shows 1-2 FEET (below). This multi-model average is run at a lower resolution, which means that the model does not do well picking up the exact shape of our mountains and thus often underestimates snowfall. Actual snow totals can be somewhat higher than what is shown.

Any way you slice it, the next 7 days will be active, favoring northern Colorado, and now that we’re into November, this snow should stick around and help to build the base, especially at the higher elevation north-facing slopes.

If this were mid-winter with all ski areas open, it would be 'go time' to ski pow over the next week.

For now, only Loveland and Arapahoe Basin are open for full-time operations with very limited terrain, and Wolf Creek is open on weekends only with a good amount of terrain. These are the inbounds spots to get turns.

If you head into the backcountry, remember that avalanche risk can exist anytime there is snow on the ground so do not brush this off as early season and lose focus. Also, with 1-2 FEET of snow in the forecast and strong winds over the northern mountains, it’s time to fully put away the 'this is just the early season' idea. CAIC (Colorado Avalanche Information Center) will begin daily forecasts today on November 1st – they are the best resource for avalanche information.

It’s tough to look far ahead since we have multiple storms during the next week.

A quick peek at the extended forecast shows that we might get a break in the snow sometime during later next week, then there could be another system during the broad window between Friday, November 9 and Tuesday, November 13. I can’t offer any more details about this window, so we’ll leave it at that and I'll let you know if projections become more certain.

Thanks for reading and look for my next update on Friday, November 2.

JOEL GRATZ

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

* November 1 in Boulder at Neptune Mountaineering starting at 600pm. There will be happy hour, my talk, the short film “Abandoned” about lost ski areas, and a raffle with REALLY good prizes. Tickets to the event are $10 and include two raffle entries and proceeds go to Friends of CAIC! (SOLD OUT, SORRY!)

* November 8 in Evergreen at Boone Mountain Sports / Evergreen Brewery. Beer and food available for purchase, and talk starts at 7 pm. Details here.

* November 9 in Breckenridge at the Breckenridge Backstage Theater. Party, my talk, and a movie. Time from 500-830pm. Details here.

* November 28 in Vail.

* December 5 in Denver

 

OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains