Snowpack Update

Let’s start this Friday with a look at our current snowpack. This is based on the weight of the snow on the ground, measured by automated backcountry weather stations called SNOTEL.

The map below shows the percent of actual snowpack compared to the average snowpack for the last day October. Red is well below average and blue/purple is well above average.

Colorado is looking good, especially compared to our neighbors to the north and west.

Zooming in to Colorado, we see that the snowpack is above average for most areas of the state. And in the northwest, where the snowpack is 72-75% of average, this is a zone that will see plenty of snow over the coming week, so they should catch up or surpass average snowpack pretty soon.

Storm #2: Recap (Wednesday night through Friday)

The northern mountains experienced waves of light snow with winds gusting to 40-50mph on the higher elevations near the divide.

The estimated snow totals below are based on mountain cams as SNOTEL stations have trouble accurately measuring low-end snow totals.

Loveland: 4”

Breckenridge: 3-4”

Copper: 3-4”

Aspen Highlands: 3”

Arapahoe Basin: 2"

Vail: 2”

Beaver Creek: 1-2”

Keystone: 1-2”

Steamboat: 1-2”

Crested Butte: 1”

Telluride: 1”

Winter Park: 1”

We will likely see another round of light snow for the northern mountains during the first half of Friday, so maybe another inch or two of accumulation.

When you look at the snow totals above, you might feel underwhelmed and think that I’m dedicating too much time to a storm that dropped just a few inches of snow.

The reason this storm is important is that the clouds and light snow keep the snow surface cold and soft while adding just a bit of base.

In another 1-2 months, when the base is deeper and most mountains have plenty of terrain open, these weak storms between bigger storms are the key to keeping snow conditions soft and fun, with the alternate being 7+ days of sunshine which can allow the snow surface to become harder and crunchier. In other words, every flake counts!

Dry on Friday afternoon

The northern mountains should see dry weather between about Friday at 1 pm and Friday at 6-8pm. This will be a short reprieve between storms.

Storm #3: Friday night - Saturday night

This system will again favor the northern mountains and the latest models continue to show 3-7 inches of snow. I am backing off my early 4-8 inch forecast just a hair because I see a bit more variability in the models. But the ingredients for good snow are there (cooling temperatures, adequate moisture, wind from the northwest) so in general, this storm is still on track.

Dry on Sunday morning

Another break between systems. The models continue to show this.

Storm #4: Sunday midday – Tuesday or beyond

This is the strongest system and it should start to bring snow by early Sunday afternoon and the snow should be most intense sometime on Sunday night or Monday.

This storm will bring snow not only to the northern mountains but will also track far enough south so that healthy snow totals come to the central and southern mountains as well.

Total snowfall

I like to look at the University of Utah ensemble forecast, which blends various versions of the American GFS and Canadian models.

For Vail Pass (a rough estimate of snow across the northern mountains), the model shows total snow of about 15 inches, with about 6 inches on Friday night and Saturday then an additional 8-9 inches on Sunday evening through Monday.

I am following the darker blue lines, representing the American GFS model, because this is similar to the European model (not shown) while the light blue lines of the Canadian model seem too low.

Of course, the Canadian model could be right, or all models could be wrong. We use the models as guidance rather than an absolute look into the future.

Further south, at Red Mountain Pass, on the north side of the southern mountains and roughly between Telluride and Silverton, the model shows a total of 10 inches, with about 2 inches on Friday night and Saturday then another 8 inches on Sunday evening through Monday. In this case, the American GFS model and Canadian model are in rough agreement.

Where can you ride?

With all of this snow coming, where is the best place to enjoy it?

As of right now, only Loveland and Arapahoe Basin are open for full-time operations with very limited terrain (2 runs each) and Wolf Creek is open only on weekends with a good amount of terrain (maybe 50-75% this weekend). These are the inbounds spots to get turns.

If you head into the backcountry, remember that avalanche risk can exist anytime there is snow on the ground so do not brush this off as early season and lose focus. Also, with 1-2 FEET of snow in the forecast and strong winds over the northern mountains, it’s time to put away the “this is just the early season” ideas. Check CAIC (Colorado Avalanche Information Center) as they are the best resource for avalanche information and forecasts.

Tuesday and Wednesday, November 6-7 should bring additional light snow to the northern mountains.

Thursday through Saturday, November 8-10 should be dry and warmer.

The next storm should arrive in the November 11-15 period. Most models are now showing ‘something’ during these dates, and in many models, this is a stronger storm that moves rather slowly from the west or southwest. It could be a big snow producer if everything lines up. Of course, forecasts out to 10+ days should be used more as a general guide and not for detailed planning, so I’ll keep an eye on this time period and we’ll hope that the storm train will keep tracking through Colorado.

Thanks for reading and look for my next update on Saturday, November 3.

JOEL GRATZ

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

What an AMAZING experience it was on Thursday night at Neptune Mountaineering in Boulder. The energy of hundreds of people who love snow and science was incredible. If you attended, thank you! And if you missed it or live in a different area, I have more talks scheduled, see below.

* Thursday, November 8 in Evergreen at Boone Mountain Sports / Evergreen Brewery. Free to attend. Beer and food available for purchase, and the talk starts at 7 pm. Details here.

* Friday, November 9 in Breckenridge at the Breckenridge Backstage Theater. Party, my talk, and a movie. Time from 500-830pm. Details here.

* November 28 in Vail.

* December 5 in Denver.

 

OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains