Monday morning

The storm that dropped snow on Sunday is now moving away from Colorado with a few snow showers lingering over the state. Temperatures are very cold, between about -5F and +5F at 10,000 feet.

Snow totals

Going into this storm, confidence was high for 4-8+ inches east of the divide. Below are the east-of-the-divide totals as of Monday morning, which came in at or above the forecast. The data is from NWS reports, cams, and SNOTEL stations.

Foothills west of Boulder/Golden: 10-15”

Boulder: 10”

Cuchara (southeast): 10-12”

Eldora ski area: 9”

Rocky Mountain National Park: 6-8”

Monarch: 5-8”

For the western mountains, the snow looked more scattered and variable with 1-4 inches. The majority of mountains were in this range, and a narrow band of snow stretched from southwest-to-northeast and hit Aspen, Beaver Creek, and Vail with higher-than-forecasted totals.

Snowmass: 10”

Aspen Mountain: 6”

Beaver Creek: 6”

Aspen Highlands: 5”

Vail: 3-6”

Cooper: 4”

Telluride: 4”

Wolf Creek: 4”

Breckenridge: 3”

Buttermilk: 2”

Loveland: 2”

Arapahoe Basin: 1”

Copper: 1”

Crested Butte: 1”

Keystone: 1”

Sunlight: 1”

Eastern New Mexico also saw intense snow on Sunday night with most of the ski areas (Taos, Red River, Angel Fire, Santa Fe) getting 10-15” inches.

This week

Expect dry weather through Friday with plenty of sunshine. Monday will be the coldest day with highs in the teens, then temperatures will warm to the 20s on Tuesday and 30s on Wednesday and beyond.

Early openings

Vail just announced that they will open on Wednesday, November 14th.

Monarch just announced that they will open on Friday, November 16th.

Beaver Creek just announced that they will open on Saturday, November 17th.

Our next chance for snow will be on Saturday as a weak system brushes by the northeastern corner of Colorado.

During the last few days, it appears that this system would stay east of Colorado. Now both the European and American GFS models bring it a bit further west, closer to Colorado.

If the current forecast holds, perhaps a few inches will fall east of the divide, favoring Eldora, with lighter showers for other mountains. If the forecast continues to push the storm further west with a more direct hit on Colorado, the snow forecast will increase.

Then during early Thanksgiving week, the storm track will be to our north and we’ll stay dry.

Once we get to Thanksgiving, most models are showing storms returning to the west, likely getting to California during the middle of Thanksgiving week and then getting to Colorado on or just after Thanksgiving. 

This is still 10+ days away, so we can’t talk about the details of each system that moves into the western US, but I feel good that the upcoming dry period should change to a more active period during the final seven-ish days of November.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Tuesday, November 13.

JOEL GRATZ

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

* November 28 in Vail at Walking Mountains Science Center. Free to attend. The talk starts at 630pm. Please RSVP here.

* December 5 in Denver.

 

OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains