Monday recap

Temperatures were cold (single digits to teens) and the sun was shining following Sunday’s storm.

Conditions looked great at Eldora where they measured a storm total of 9 inches.

And it looks like mid-winter at Beaver Creek (and many other mountains across the state).

Tuesday morning

We’ll wake to chilly temperatures in the single digits and teens, as well as low and mid-level clouds over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will warm into the 20s, which is about 10 degrees warmer than Monday.

Rest of the week

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be dry. Temperatures each day will top out in the 30s with plenty of sunshine. Overnight lows will be plenty cold enough for snowmaking to continue.

Early openings

Thanks to the 4+ feet of early-season natural snowfall, additional mountains have joined the party and will open before their previously scheduled dates. The new opening dates are:

* Vail, Wednesday, November 14th
* Monarch, Friday, November 16th
* Aspen Mountain, Saturday, November 17th
* Beaver Creek, Saturday, November 17th

Sneaky storm on Saturday and Sunday

The storm track this weekend will stay to the north and east. At first glance, this would not favor most areas of the western US.

However, it looks like we are going to get lucky as some storm energy and moisture will sneak into Colorado. See the blue shading and dashed blue line below.

The potential storm on Saturday and Sunday is trending the right way. In other words, a few days ago, all models showed the storm missing Colorado, and now virtually all models show at least some snow over the weekend.

A very early look at the snow forecast shows between 1-6 inches for many northern and central mountains. A broad range is a good way to look at the 5-day forecast as the forecast for the storm's track will change many times between now and Saturday when the snow starts.

If you’re jonesing for a bit of fresh snow, Sunday morning looks like a decent bet right now.

Following the sneaky storm on Saturday and Sunday, we should see dry weather during the start of Thanksgiving week (Monday, November 19 to Wednesday, November 21).

Then all models show more active weather for the western US, and this could translate into a storm (or multiple storms) hitting Colorado with an arrival date anytime between Thanksgiving Day (Thursday, November 22) and Monday, November 26.

NOAA’s 8-14 day precipitation outlook puts the southwestern US in the ‘above average’ category for November, which is a signal that storms should return near or after Thanksgiving.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Wednesday, November 14.

JOEL GRATZ

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

* November 28 in Vail at Walking Mountains Science Center. Free to attend. The talk starts at 630pm. Please RSVP here.

* December 5 in Denver.

OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only) 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains