Storm #1: Thursday morning powder

The forecast for this system was 2-6 inches for the central and northern mountains. This is about what happened as most central and northern areas received 2-7 inches.

Here are the deepest totals as of Thursday at 600 am:

Steamboat: 7”
Crested Butte: 6”
Cooper: 5”
Snowmass: 4”
Vail: 4”
Winter Park: 4”

Steamboat’s 7-inch report is from mid-mountain, and their snow stake cam (below) at the summit also shows 7-8 inches.

The 6-inch report at Crested Butte was on the high side of what I thought was possible since I wasn’t sure that the more intense snow would make it that far south. High-end snow totals are good!

The snow quality of this powder should be on the thicker side due to the warm temperatures. While I love fluffy snow, the thicker powder is also fun as it covers up the crusty/old snow below and feels surfy when you ski/ride. Enjoy!

Lingering snow showers should end by Thursday mid-morning, then Thursday midday and afternoon should be on the drier side.

Storm #2: Friday AM to Saturday afternoon

* Location. Friday AM = southern mountains, Friday PM through Saturday = all mountains

* Amount. Most areas in the 5-10 inch range by Saturday afternoon.

* Timing. Best powder in the southern mountains Friday and maybe Saturday. Best powder in the central and northern mountains last run Friday and more likely Saturday morning and midday.

* Weather details…

The radar on Thursday morning shows Storm #1 departing Colorado and Storm #2 making landfall in California. It’s the precipitation in California that will hit Colorado on Friday into Saturday.

The first part of the storm will bring the most intense snow to the southern mountains on Thursday night and then a wind from the west-southwest should keep snow going in the southern mountains and at Crested Butte through Friday midday. Temperatures will start warmer, so the snow quality could be thicker. The southern mountains should have good powder to start the day on Friday.

From Friday midday through Friday evening, snow will continue over the southern mountains and spread to the central and northern mountains as well. Storm energy, cooling temperatures, instability, and a wind from the west will allow the snow to fill in over the entire state. For the central and northern mountains, the last run on Friday might be the best of the day.

On Friday night through Saturday afternoon, temperatures will continue to cool, instability will be pretty good, and the wind direction should be from some variety of northwest, west, and west-southwest depending on the exact mountain. This means that Saturday morning should offer powder for most areas and will likely be the best time for pow in the northern and central mountains.

A wind from the west, which is the average direction on Friday night and Saturday, favors Steamboat, Beaver Creek, Sunlight, Aspen, maybe Crested Butte (if the wind swings a bit more west-southwest), Monarch, and Telluride/Silverton.

To recap, the southern mountains get good powder Friday with some areas also having powder Saturday. The central and northern mountains likely have some powder Friday last run and the best powder Saturday morning (a weekend-warrior storm!).

Total snow from Sunday morning

This graphic is an average of many models produced by NOAA. I don’t agree with exact details of every aspect of this forecast, but I agree in its general depiction that Storm #2 will bring snow to all of Colorado’s mountains.

Storm #3: Sunday – Monday

The models have finally converged on a forecast for this system.

This storm will target the southern mountains with 4-10 inches of snow from late Saturday night through Monday morning.

The southern track of this reasonably-strong storm will bring winds from the south and southwest to the southern mountains, and winds from the east to other mountains.

A wind direction from the east is NOT a good direction for most mountains with the exception of areas east of the divide, where there might see a few inches in the foothills west of the major eastern cities (Boulder/Denver/Colorado Springs/Pueblo).

Temperatures will be cold during this storm, so the snow that falls in the southern mountains could be quite fluffy!

Storm #4: December 7-8

It now looks like a lot of next week will be drier for many mountains, and we’ll need to wait until Friday into Saturday (December 7-8) for the next system.

Like Storm #3, this storm will likely favor the southern mountains. Some models show that it could track even further south, generally missing Colorado, while other forecasts show some wrap-around snow hitting all mountains next Friday into Saturday. Stay tuned.

Dry: December 8-11

It’s still looking like these days will be on the drier side.

Next system: December 12+

As I said yesterday, amazingly, despite the uncertainty associated with Storm #3 and Storm #4, the forecast for 13-15 days from now has remained consistent with most models showing a return to storminess around December 12th. Let’s hope this holds!

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Friday, November 30.

JOEL GRATZ

 My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow! 

* December 5 in Denver at the Denver Athletic Club. More details tomorrow.

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains