Colorado Daily Snow
By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 5 years ago November 30, 2018
Storm arrives Friday, more powder through Saturday
Summary
Following Thursday morning’s low-to-moderate powder day in the central and northern mountains, the next storm is arriving now on Friday morning. Initially, the snow will hit the southern mountains, then the central and northern mountains will get snow Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Total snowfall should be 5-10 inches. Then a storm on Sunday into Monday will bring snow to the southern mountains. Looking further ahead, another storm is possible between December 6-8, then drier weather through about December 11th, with another storm around December 12th. Good news on all fronts!
Short Term Forecast
Thursday powder day
A quick note about Thursday morning’s powder in the central and northern mountains.
Most Thursday morning snow reports were in the 2-6 inch range and then an additional 1-3 inches fell before 1000 am.
As I mentioned previously, these numbers might not seem impressive, but mid-week powder is a gift, so I try to get out on these low-end ‘sneaky’ days if I can.
Since I was in the Vail area to give a talk on Wednesday night at Walking Mountains Science Center, I stuck around to ski on Thursday morning. Not only was the new 4-6 inches of snow surfy and fun to ride, but we got lucky because Blue Sky Basin opened for the season in the morning.
Terrain openings are another gift because you get to ski the snow that has accumulated for months prior to that day. We found a bit more than a foot of fresh snow on top of a deep and soft base.
In my talks, I mention that chasing powder is part forecasting skill, part work (planning, travel logistics), and part luck (weather is fickle, terrain openings, etc). It seems like once or twice a season, the luck really comes through, and what fun it is when it happens!
Friday morning snow reports
If you look at the 24-hour snow reports on Friday morning at 500 am, you’ll see 1-3” reported at most northern mountains. This snow all fell on Thursday morning and has been skied. The exception is at Steamboat where they saw a quick wave of snow on Thursday evening, so their 3” report will be fresh to ski on Friday morning.
To figure out if the reported snow fell during the previous day or overnight, a few mountains do differentiate between the 24-hour snow report and the overnight snow report, and also, the 24-hour time-lapse cams here on OpenSnow allow you to rewind the last day to see when snow actually accumulated.
Storm #2: Friday AM to Saturday afternoon
Following dry weather on Thursday night, snow started a few hours before Friday sunrise in the southern mountains and west-central mountains. Snow is falling at Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Powderhorn.
Here is the base of Wolf Creek, in the southern mountains on Friday at 630am.
The forecast is on track for most mountains to receive 5-10 inches of snow by Saturday afternoon.
On Friday morning, most of the snow will fall in the southern mountains.
Then by Friday afternoon, snow showers will continue over the southern mountains with snow beginning to fall over the central and northern mountains.
And on Friday night and Saturday, additional snow will fall thanks to storm energy (vorticity) which will help to lift the air, as well as instability which will allow the air to rise when it hits the mountains.
Total snowfall through Saturday afternoon should look like this, generally in the 5-10 inch range.
Based on model forecasts and the wind direction from the west, west-northwest, and northwest, I think we’ll see good Saturday powder at Telluride and Silverton in the southern mountains, the Aspen area in the central mountains (maybe Sunlight as well?), and in the north, Steamboat and Vail often do well with a west-northwest and northwest wind, and most of the I-70 mountains can do well also (Copper, Breckenridge, Loveland, Winter Park).
The best time to ski powder in the southern mountains will be on Friday.
In the central and northern mountains, the last run on Friday could be fun. First-chair Saturday will also be good, plus there will be more snow through the day on Saturday.
Extended Forecast
Storm #3: Sunday – Monday
No big change to this forecast, though there is still uncertainty.
This storm will target the southern mountains with 4-8+ inches of snow from late Saturday night through Monday morning.
The southern track of this reasonably-strong storm will bring winds from the south and southwest to the southern mountains and winds from the east to other mountains. A wind direction from the east is NOT a good direction for most other mountains with the exception of areas east of the divide which might see a few inches in the foothills west of the major eastern cities (Boulder/Denver/Colorado Springs/Pueblo). Maybe, if we’re lucky, some of this eastern snow will creep far enough west to hit Eldora and the area around Rocky Mountain National Park.
On Monday, as the storm departs, some models show the northern mountains getting light accumulations as the wind swings around to blow from the northwest, but with the cold air we might be lacking moisture, so snow totals would be on the lower end.
Storm #4: December 7-8
This storm should track south of Colorado, bringing the most snow to Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado’s southern mountains on Thursday, Friday, and/or Saturday.
Some forecasts show moisture from this storm phasing with energy from the north, which would mean that snow could fall over all of Colorado's mountains and not just the southern mountains. This is still a week away so we’ll keep an eye on this storm as the forecast evolves.
Dry: December 8-11
It’s still looking like these days will be on the drier side, though there is a chance that we'll see snow showers around through the weekend.
Next system: December 12+
The consistency in the forecast remains with strong indications for another storm around the 12th or 13th.
Thanks for reading!
My next update will be on Saturday, December 1.
JOEL GRATZ
Announcements
My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!
* December 5 in Denver at the Denver Athletic Club in the "Centennial Room". Start time is 600pm and admission is $5 which includes a complimentary beer. Details here.
Geography Key
Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass
East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn
Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains