Saturday powder

Snow fell in the southern mountains starting on Friday morning and then it hit the central and northern mountains on Friday afternoon and evening.

Below are the deepest 24-hour ski area reports from Friday at 500 am to Saturday at 500 am:

Telluride: 9”
Powderhorn: 8”
Wolf Creek: 8”
Purgatory: 6”
Others areas: 2-5” (you can compare all snow reports on the Colorado page)

Telluride is the winner so far due to the combination of 3 inches on Friday from the first wave plus additional snow on Friday night thanks to a favorable wind from the west and additional storm energy (vorticity) moving in from the west.

While Telluride’s official total is 9 inches on Saturday morning (3” Friday + 6” Friday night), their snow stake cam shows closer to 8-9” on Friday night, so the actual total is likely close to 12” and it’s still snowing.

Expect additional snow through Saturday early afternoon as another wave of energy moves across Colorado. This wave should bring 3-6 inches to mountains that are further west (this wave is already producing snow at the western areas of Telluride, Powderhorn, and Steamboat) and a coating to 3 inches to mountains further east.

The precipitation forecast for the day on Saturday, from the high-resolution short-range HRRR model, shows up to 0.3 -0.4 inches of precipitation. At a 15-to-1 snow-to-liquid ratio, that’s about 4.5-6.0 inches on the high end.

Another view of Saturday’s precipitation is from the high-resolution NAM-WRF model. The animation is between Saturday 300 am to 500 pm.

The main message for Saturday is that for mountains further west that are favored by winds from the west, west-northwest, and northwest, we should see additional snow so conditions will be deeper and softer than what is indicated on the Saturday 500 am snow report.

Storm Sunday and Monday

We’ll only see a short break of dry weather on Saturday night before the next system rolls in.

This storm will target the southern mountains with 3-8 inches of snow from Sunday morning through Sunday night, and Wolf Creek will likely receive the most snow with the best powder on Sunday.

Most other central and northern mountains will see only light accumulations.

Monday to Wednesday

No big storms, though we’ll have enough moisture around that there could be flurries or snow showers at times. Temperatures will be chilly with highs only in the teens on Monday and Tuesday.

Next storm Thursday to Saturday

This storm will track to the south of Colorado, bringing the most snow to Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Colorado. That said, another system to the north of Colorado might bring enough energy to also drop light snow over our northern and central mountains. Basically, it’s going to snow, but the details are still hard to figure out and the deepest accumulations will likely be to our south.

Dry late next weekend and early next week

Next Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday (December 9-11) look dry and mostly sunny.

Storms return on December 12+

All models are still consistent, showing the next storm around December 12-13 with another one after that, heading into the weekend of December 15-16. Let the good times roll!

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Sunday, December 2.

JOEL GRATZ

 My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow! 

* December 5 in Denver at the Denver Athletic Club in the "Centennial Room". Start time is 600pm and admission is $5 which includes a complimentary beer. Details here.

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains