Summary

VERY difficult forecast for Thursday and beyond. In the mean time, mostly dry today (Tuesday) with a few snow showers in the San Juans. Mostly dry Wednesday with some late-day snow showers. Good snow Wednesday night and again Thursday, though I lowered amounts from previous forecasts. A lull in the snow Thursday night and Friday morning, then a few storms could move through on Friday through Monday, and the details are impossible to nail down right now. There's a possibility for an upslope snow storm east of the divide Friday night into Saturday, but again, still too early for any hint of confidence in this forecast. We should dry out by next Wed-Fri (March 27-29).

Details

With a few storms hitting Colorado from Wednesday night through Monday, there's a good chance for good conditions to develop for many ski areas. This time of year brings a higher sun angle and warmer temperatures, so a sun crust often develops as the sun melts the snow surface during the day and it freezes at night (north-facing slopes are often immune to this). It takes a few days of fresh snow to cover and soften this sun crust so you don't feel it while skiing. The upcoming forecast is so complicated that I'm not confident about big amounts for any particular area, though I'm hoping that multiple small-to-medium storms will lead to softer conditions after a few days. More below...

Tuesday and Tuesday night:
Dry for most locations though clouds are looking pretty thick for some areas this morning, so I'm not sure how much sun will poke through. The models move the clouds away by midday and let's hope this verifies. There is some moisture in the San Juans and this could lead to a few snow showers during the midday, afternoon, and evening hours. 

Wednesday:
Again, mostly dry until the late afternoon. LOTS of moisture will be streaming in from the west, so expect a good deal of clouds. I think most areas will start to see snow showers by late in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday night:
It will snow, and I think the central mountains around Crested Butte and Irwin will be the winner as a west-southwesterly wind is perfect for this area. The upside of Wednesday night is that we'll have a TON of moisture. The downsides are warmer temperatures, lack of any strong storm energy, and a WSW wind direction that only favors a few areas. That said, moisture is the trump card, so when everything isn't looking perfect but moisture is plentiful, then good snow can fall. I forecasted a general 2-4 inches overnight for most areas. I won't be surprised to see just an inch or two for unlucky locations, and I also wouldn't be surprised to see 6 inches for some areas that see a heavier snow band. The most likely areas for good snow (4-8 inches) will be in the central mountains around Crested Butte and Irwin which do well with west-southwest winds. Snowmass and Telluride could also do well. Finally, it looks like a southwesterly wind could hit the southern San Juans, and this could be good for Wolf Creek to see 4-8 inches overnight. See the detailed forecast here.

Thursday and Thursday night:
I lowered amounts for most areas as the storm looks to stay further north and move through faster than earlier forecasts indicated. I think we could see a lull in the snow early Thursday morning then a heavier burst around late morning or midday, followed by some snow showers. Most of the accumulating snow should be over by later Thursday afternoon, which leads me to believe that Thursday will be the best pow day with snow from Wednesday night and more filling in through the day. Thursday night will be drying out, starting by late afternoon and fully dry after midnight.

Friday through Monday:
I have no clue about the details of the forecast The models are still changing and moving things around, and I have no feel for what will ultimately turn out.

The models are now showing that a second strom behind Thursday's storm will drop south through Colorado on Friday and cut-off a bit on Friday night. This could mean that the San Juans see some good snow AND that we get an upslope snowstorm for areas east of the divide Friday night into Saturday, with wrap-around snow filling in over the western mountains Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Then we could see another quick storm move through on Sunday or Monday with northwest flow before things dry out on Tuesday afternoon (March 26th) through the rest of that week.

This is one scenario, and I do think that we'll see some variation of this. However it is impossible to pin down the details right now, so I forecasted about 1-2 inches for all areas for each day and night, Friday through Saturday night, just to be on the safe side. I'll refine this as the weekend gets closer. The only exception is Eldora where I put up to a foot in the forecast for Friday night and Saturday morning as some type of upslope seems likely. I say that upslope is likely not only because the models are trending this way, but also because of climatology, which means average weather. It's pretty normal for eastern Colorado to see a few cut-off storms producing upslope snow in the springtime, so this is a likely scenario that the models are showing.

As the storm systems makes landfall on the west coast tonight and Wednesday morning, the weather models will get better data (from weather stations on the ground) and hopefully will be able to turn this better data into a more certain forecast for the weekend. Stay tuned...

Long range:
No details, but it does look like we'll have a good chance for storms from late March through early April. This doesn't mean it'll snow all the time or that we'll avoid a few days of warm sunny weather, because that's inevitable. I'm just pointing out that we shouldn't see weeks of snowless weather like we did last spring, and continued storms is good for snow coverage on the slopes and more importantly to beef up the snowpack for the spring runoff. We're at about 80% of average statewide and this typically peaks around April 10-15th before melting takes over and the snowpack sees a rapid decline.

JOEL GRATZ