I do not see any big changes to the forecast.

The deepest snow from Wednesday night through Saturday morning will be over the southern mountains with lighter amounts in the central and northern mountains.

Below is my take on the total snowfall potential from Wednesday night through Saturday morning.

* Purgatory, Wolf Creek: 20-40”
* Silverton: 12-24”
* Telluride: 8-16”
* Powderhorn: 6-12”
* Other mountains: 4-10”

While totals of up to 3 feet in the far southern mountains seem hard to believe, the University of Utah multi-model forecast shows an average of about 30 inches, so near or more than 3 feet is a reasonable forecast!

Since deep snow totals in the far south are a good bet, the next question is snow quality. Temperatures do look like they will warm somewhat late Thursday night into Friday morning when we see the strongest surge of moisture, and the winds will ramp up, so we might see a period of somewhat thicker snow, but overall the quality should be about average for Colorado, which is plenty good!

Let’s break down the storm a little more.

Wednesday night

Snowfall on Wednesday night favored the far southern mountains, which is not a surprise. Below are the reports as of Thursday morning.

* Wolf Creek: 10”
* Silverton: 9”
* Purgatory: 7”

Thursday

We should see steady snow in the far southern mountains.

Elsewhere, the day will start dry with showers forming in the afternoon and maybe light accumulations.

Thursday night

Snow will continue in the southern mountains.

Elsewhere, we’ll see more intense cells and lines of snow that will hit the central and northern mountains so there could be 2-5 inches from later Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

Friday

In the southern mountains, the most intense snow could fall late Thursday night (Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory) and then during the day Friday (Wolf Creek). Friday will be a deep powder day in the southern mountains.

For the other mountains, we’ll continue to see intense cells and lines of snow at times, so expect another 2-5 inches.

Friday night

The snow will end over the southern mountains and we could see a few hours of snow in the central and northern mountains during the evening as winds shift to blow from a more favorable west and northwesterly direction.

Saturday might offer some fresh tracks in the morning (if snow hangs on through Friday night) and then the rest of the day will be dry.

The dry weather will continue through Sunday as well.

Over the weekend, snow will stay to the north and west of Colorado.

The update to the forecast for next week is that all models are trending toward keeping the bulk of the snow north of Colorado. If this happens, the northern mountains would see chances for light-or-moderate snow at times from Tuesday through Friday.

Then it’s possible that we’ll see a stronger system sometime in the March 3-5 date range. That’s out past 10 days from now, so still too far away to have any confidence in the details of snow amounts and timing. Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Friday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains