Colorado Daily Snow
By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 5 years ago March 22, 2019
Friday southern powder, showers elsewhere
Summary
The southern mountains are reporting 8-12 inches on Friday morning – enjoy the dense powder in the south! Otherwise, we’ll see showers continue across the state on Friday and Friday night with some potential for 6+ inches in the northeast mountains on Friday night. Saturday will be a drier day, then showers will return on Sunday and Sunday night. Early next week will be dry and warm, then a stronger and colder storm should bring snow between Thursday, March 28 and Saturday, March 30.
Short Term Forecast
Recap: Thursday & Thursday Night
Snow fell heavily in the southern mountains on Thursday and Thursday night with much lower amounts elsewhere. This was pretty well forecast by the models as the southern mountains saw both the most moisture and a favorable wind from the south and southwest. Telluride doesn’t always do well with a wind from the south, but this time it worked out.
Below are the 24-hour snow totals from Thursday from 500am to Friday at 500am.
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
Wolf Creek: 12”
Silverton: 11”
Purgatory: 10”
Telluride: 8”
OTHER MOUNTAINS
Monarch: 4”
Cooper: 2”
Breckenridge: 1”
Crested Butte: 1”
Keystone: 1”
Powderhorn: 1”
Snowmass: 1”
The snow stake cam at Telluride nicely shows the fresh 8 inches.
And check out this Friday morning pre-dawn image from the cam overlooking Telluride. What a gorgeous place!
Friday & Friday Night
The storm that brought us snow on Thursday, and will continue to bring showers on Friday, is spinning over Colorado and Utah. The water vapor satellite image below shows this broad area of spin.
During the day Friday, expect showers across the state with a few inches of accumulation. Some models still show an area of more intense showers over the northern and north-east mountains (I-70 area and northeast) between Friday noon and Friday evening, but the most recent HRRR (high-resolution rapid refresh) model backs off this idea, so I’m not sure. Below is the CAIC WRF 2km model snow forecast for Friday.
On Friday night, the CAIC WRF 2km model insists that as the storm strengthens over eastern Colorado, wrap-around moisture will bring a period of intense snow to the mountains near and north of I-70 and along the continental divide (Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Eldora, Cameron Pass).
Other models keep this intense precipitation just east of the mountains and out over the plains.
I don’t know what to believe, which is frustrating as this is only looking about 12 hours into the future.
The way I think about these situations is that I keep my expectations low and also keep my eye on the snow stake cams to watch for a high-side surprise. Below is the CAIC WRF 2km forecast for Friday night.
Saturday
We’ll see lingering showers though accumulations should be light and we could see some sunshine.
Storm Forecast
The gif below shows the forecast radar from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. You can see showers increasing on Friday, a period of wrap-around snow over northeast Colorado on Friday evening, and then the showers ending on Saturday.
Saturday Night – Sunday Night
We should see another wave of energy bring snow showers to all of the state with the best chance for more accumulation in the central and northern mountains. Look for another 1-5 inches during this time, with perhaps softer skiing later Sunday or early Monday.
Extended Forecast
Monday 3/26 – Wednesday 3/27
Following any lingering showers on Monday morning, we’ll see dry weather on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be warm (highs in the 40s) and the winds should become gusty on Wednesday ahead of the next storm.
Thursday 3/28 – Saturday 3/30
I still think we’ll see a rather strong storm, and I still don’t feel confident in the details. Right now I’d estimate that the best skiing could be on Friday.
Parting Shot
Check out this picture from the road up to Silverton. That’s avalanche debris on the left, and an amazing job by local crews to clear a path through it! To be clear, Silverton Mountain is OPEN!
Thanks for reading!
My next update will be on Saturday morning.
JOEL GRATZ
Announcements
Geography Key
Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass
East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn
Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains
About Our Forecaster
Joel Gratz
Founding Meteorologist
Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.
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