Stoke!

Before getting to the forecast, I want to share a few reader-submitted photos from the past two weeks.

This one is from a morning at Telluride on March 13, 2019. I bet a lot of us can relate to this picture, riding up the chairlift on a powder morning, looking down to see multiple people in the white room!

A Saturday morning backcountry tour outside of Steamboat, Colorado. A beautiful way to start the weekend!

From this past Sunday’s southern-mountain powder, a nice afternoon a Telluride!

And the sneaky powder day on Sunday at Wolf Creek, when 9 inches fell during the day.

Thanks for sending these pictures to me ([email protected]) and please continue to do so!

Tuesday & Wednesday

On Tuesday morning, we are waking up to a dusting to 1 inch of snow that accumulated between about 1am-5am in the central and northern mountains. This was the first wave of showers, and there will be more waves of snow through Wednesday night.

The NAM-WRF 3km model shows a stronger wave of snow showers from Tuesday early evening through Tuesday night and additional showers on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The animation below stretches from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.

NOAA’s multi-model snow forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday continues to show about what we’ve been expecting, with accumulations between 3-6 inches and maybe up to 8+ inches if a few intense cells hit a particular mountain.

With additional moisture in these springtime systems, it’s always possible for a small cell to drop a couple of inches of snow in an hour or two, which can help a mountain bust through the upper end of the forecast range.

The caveats to this storm is that the snow will move through in waves of showers that will be tough to time, and also that temperatures will be warm with daytime snow levels around 7,000-8,000 feet. This elevation still means that most mountains will see mostly snow, though a few base areas could see raindrops during times of lighter precipitation during the daylight hours.

To find the potential for the softest snow, look to north-facing groomers that do not have a melt/freeze crust, and target Wednesday morning and maybe Thursday morning.

Thursday & Friday

We’ll be in between storm systems, so expect lingering clouds on Thursday morning giving way to dry weather and sunshine, and likely a dry day on Friday as well, though there could be a few afternoon showers. Temperatures will be warm with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Saturday & Sunday

There is a bit more model agreement that we could see light showers from Friday night into Saturday, and then a more intense burst of snow on Saturday night, which could yield 2-6 inches by Sunday morning. Keep your eye on Sunday morning for the potential to ski soft snow.

All of the longer-range models continue to show a colder and stormier period between about April 10-15. It’s still too soon to know if the focus of this storm (or multiple storms) will be over Colorado or just to our north or west. I am cautiously getting exciting for ‘something’ fun to happen during this time, but we’re still 8-13 days away from the action, so there is plenty of time for the forecast to evolve.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Wednesday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains