We’ve been talking about the storm for a week, and it’s finally here. It’s time to watch the atmosphere do its thing and get out and ride powder.

On Tuesday night, a few showers moved through Colorado ahead of the main storm. The strongest line of showers hit Snowmass and the Vail/Beaver Creek area with 3-4 inches of snow.

Beaver Creek’s snow stake cam showed 2-3 inches on Wednesday at 500am and below is what has fallen between 500am and 615am, about 1-2 additional inches.

Elsewhere, it might not feel like a storm day as there is little new snow and temperatures are warm (the upper 20s to low 30s) but don’t worry, the snow is coming.

The forecast animation below is from Wednesday sunrise through Friday morning. You can see an initial wave of snow, which were the showers on Tuesday night, and then snow fills in everywhere on Wednesday midday and afternoon, with snow showers continuing over the northern mountains in northwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday. We could even see snow showers linger through Thursday night in the northern mountains.

The total snow forecast has not changed much in the past day. If anything, there could be a bit more snow than we were expecting.

The snow forecast from the latest CAIC-WRF 2km model, below, shows that most mountains should see 5-10 inches, and the favored areas will be in the 10-15+ inch range.

The list of  favored areas, which are also unchanged, include the northern continental divide (Eldora, Indian Peaks, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Loveland, maybe Arapahoe Basin and Keystone) as well as the northern San Juan mountains in the southwest (Telluride, which is closed, and Silverton, which is open). The latest models also bring a bit more snow to other northern mountains, like Beaver Creek, Vail, Copper, and Breckenridge, with totals of 10+ inches for these areas.

Before posting a map like the one above, I look at a LOT of additional model data to make sure that I am not cherrypicking a map that looks good but has little support from other models.

In this case, the University of Utah multi-model ensemble forecast generally agrees with the CAIC-WRF 2km above, showing 5-10 inches for most mountains and 10-15 inches for the favored areas.

For example, the multi-model ensemble map below is for Loveland Pass (between Arapahoe Basin and Loveland), and it shows a multi-model mean of about 11-14 inches, which compares favorably with the CAIC-WRF 2km forecast for about 15 inches.

The models that make up the map below are different than CAIC-WRF 2km model above, which means that we have a general agreement among different models. That’s a good thing.

As for when you’ll find the best snow, this also is unchanged.

Snow should get deeper and softer through the day on Wednesday. The most intense snow should fall near the northern divide late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning, which means that the deepest powder should be on Thursday morning.

With snow showers continuing through the day on Thursday, along with temperatures that only top out around 10-15F, the snow should stay mostly fluffy and cold on Thursday, though with the high April sun angle, there is always a chance for the snow to thicken if there are any breaks of sunshine, even for just a few minutes. So get out there early and enjoy.

The only caveat about Thursday morning’s powder is the possibility for strong winds from the northwest just east of the divide as the storm strengthens to the east of Colorado. Keep this in mind as you made the call on where to ski on Thursday.

Friday could be soft with snow showers continuing through the morning in the northern mountains.

Otherwise, we’ll likely see a break in the snow on Friday, then a southern storm could bring light-to-moderate snow to the southern and eastern mountains from later Friday through later Saturday. Amounts could be anything between 2-8+ inches. I have low confidence in the forecasted snowfall for this storm.

The next system that I am watching will bring snow between April 16-18 (Tuesday-Thursday of next week). I am not sure if this storm will deliver low-end snow amounts, or if we’ll have enough for another powder day. Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Thursday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains