State of the Snow

We started last week with near-average “snow water equivalent” numbers for the northern and central mountains and well below-average numbers for the southern mountains.

Now, nearly one week later, the percent of average has held steady across the northern and central mountains and in the southern mountains, numbers improved by 30-40%. This is good news!

The next seven days will bring two significant storms, and I think that most mountains will have numbers that are near or well-above-average by about December 1st.

Snow Monday Night & Tuesday

Following dry weather on Sunday and through most of Monday, the next storm will bring snow from late Monday afternoon through Tuesday midday.

All models now agree that the storm will be strong and track right through the center of Colorado. This is good news because it will bring a burst of snow on Monday night and the storm's energy moves overhead.

By Tuesday morning, the wind direction should shift and blow from the north and northeast. This could limit accumulations west of the divide and increase accumulations east of the divide.

Temperatures will be cold enough for the snow quality to be good (light and fluffy).

For total accumulations, I’ll stick with 5-10 inches in the central and northern mountains, with a good shot of 10+ inches near and east of the divide and near and north of I-70.

The Canadian model’s forecast is roughly the average of multiple models.

Below, the University of Utah multi-model forecast, which makes adjustments for terrain and temperature, is a little more bullish. It shows around 10 inches for Loveland in the northern mountains, which is a few inches higher than the standard output from the Canadian model above.

Wind direction is not the single controlling factor for total snowfall and that’s why all northern and central mountains should see reasonable snow amounts. But wind direction is very important, so my eye is on spots near and east of the divide that could be favored by a wind from the north and northeast like Loveland, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, and especially Eldora and the Indian Peaks north to Rocky Mountain National Park and Cameron Pass.

The timing of the storm is just about perfect for a Tuesday powder day with a lot of the snow falling on Monday night and some additional accumulations on Tuesday morning to keep things fresh.

Thanksgiving Week Openings
Purgatory: November 27
Snowmass: November 28
Telluride: November 28 (Donation Day on Nov 27th)

We will have a break in the snow from Tuesday late afternoon through midday Wednesday.

Then the next storm should bring moisture and a wind direction from the south and southwest. This will deliver snow to the southern part of the southern mountains from Wednesday night through Friday. Temperatures will be warm though cold enough for snow, and the chance for significant totals of 1-2 feet is possible especially around Silverton and Wolf Creek.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the storm will stay well to the southwest of Colorado, then the storm will head east and track over Colorado on Friday into Saturday and this is when the central and northern mountains should see snow.

Looking at potential powder days, Thursday and Friday look good around Wolf Creek, and then all mountains could enjoy powder on Friday and/or Saturday. Sometimes these southwestern storms move more slowly than the models initially predict, so I’m not sure if the heaviest snow will make it to all mountains by Friday or if it’ll take a bit longer.

Further out, during the first week of December, most models are showing drier weather with the storm track being somewhat close but not quite over Colorado. We’ll see how it plays out.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Monday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

PS – I have two more talks on my schedule and I hope to see some of you at one of them (listed below)!

Upcoming talks

These talks are usually 45 minutes and allow me to show a little of the science behind snow forecasting, have some fun, and answer lots of questions.

* Breckenridge: Dec 6 @ Colorado Mountain College Breckenridge
- Startup Weekend Kickoff Event
- 530 Dinner & Networking
- 630 My presentation discussing BOTH business & weather 
- 730 Startup Weekend Kickoff
- 830 Wrap up
- Tickets $25 includes dinner with a portion of proceeds donated to local non-profits
- See the event overview and buy tickets

* Basalt: Dec 12 @ Bristlecone Mountain Sports
- 700-730 Light refreshments
- 730-830 Presentation + Q&A
- Tickets are $10/person (proceeds benefit Roaring Fork Conservancy)
- More details
- Purchase a ticket in advance (might sell out)

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains