It’s Thursday morning and the next storm is on our doorstep. Usually, by the time the storm is within 24 hours of starting, most model guidance is general agreement. But not with this storm as there is still a lot of uncertainty. Here is a snapshot of what I am seeing.

• The storm on Thursday night and Friday is actually two systems that are somewhat out of sync. The first storm on Thursday night will bring weak energy and lots of moisture and the second storm on Friday will bring strong energy and less moisture
  
  
• All models agree that we’ll see strong winds on Friday which will likely affect lift operations
  
  
• The lower-resolution global models continue to show decent snow totals
  
  
• The high-resolution CAIC WRF model is flip-flopping with each new run

Below are the last four runs of the high-resolution CAIC WRF model, each made 6 hours apart.

Three runs ago = decent snow totals

One run ago = lower snow totals

Latest run = higher snow totals

In the summer, I spend a few days chasing severe storms (tornadoes). In that chasing community, there’s a saying that if you’re not quite sure where to go to find the storm based on the latest data, just stay put and stick with your original idea. So I’ll do the same thing here and stay the course of my previous forecast.

The southern mountains should see showers on Thursday during the afternoon then snow should intensify on Thursday night and continue through Friday midday with a short lull early on Friday morning. Total accumulations should be 8-16 inches and Wolf Creek could get more as the wind direction from the southwest is perfect for that mountain. The downside to this storm in the south will be warm temperatures through Friday late-morning which means that the snow quality will likely be thicker and heavier.

The central mountains may see a few showers on Thursday night with light accumulation. The best chance of steady snow will be Friday morning through the afternoon as the wind direction swings from the southwest to the west-southwest and the west. Total accumulations should be 5-10 inches by Friday afternoon.

The northern mountains will see a low chance for showers on Thursday night and the best chance for steady snow from around Friday late morning through Friday evening when the wind direction swings around to blow from the west and northwest. The wildcard in the north is Friday after lifts close at 4 pm. Northwest flow might bring a few more inches of fluffy snow which would set up soft turns on Saturday morning. This is tough to forecast and I’ll be watching the snow stake cams closely. Total accumulations should be 4-8 inches.

Two other things…

1) There should be a band of very intense snow that will cross the state on Friday late morning through midday. This band could bring snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour along with strong winds. Visibility could go to near zero and this could close some mountain roads for a time.

2) All mountains will see strong winds from Friday late morning through the afternoon with gusts of 40-60+ mph. This will likely close some lifts, and if the lifts stay closed throughout the day on Friday, then some terrain will have untouched snow for Saturday morning’s first chair.

To wrap up, Friday will be a stormy day with new snow, and the best turns in many places might be on Saturday morning when the winds are calm, the sky is clear, and we can enjoy the snow that wasn't skied on Friday due to potential lift closures.

We’ll see dry weather from Saturday, January 18th through about Tuesday, January 21st. The Canadian model shows a few weak showers over the weekend but even if this happens any snowfall would not be significant.

Then it still looks like most mountains will see a weak-to-moderate strength storm around Wednesday and Thursday, January 22-23rd.

I received a few emails yesterday asking what I think will happen in late January and early February. I just don’t know. Sorry!

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Friday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains