Thursday was dry for most of the state.

Thursday night is when we saw the first wave of snow move through the southern and central mountains. Snow totals on Thursday night were a little lighter than I expected for the southern mountains:

3-5” Wolf Creek (estimate)
3” Powderhorn
1-3” Hesperus (estimate)
1-3” Silverton (estimate)
1” Crested Butte
1” Monarch
1” Purgatory
1” Telluride

The snow did favor the southern mountains, which was expected. And powderhorn’s 3 inch total is really from the Friday’s wave (not Thursday night’s wave) as the Friday wave has already arrived there thanks to Powderhorn’s far western location.

Now on Thursday morning at 600 am, the regional radar animation shows snow just entering western Colorado with intense snow extending back into Utah. This action is all heading roughly west-to-east and will cross our state throughout the day on Friday.

The latest CAIC WRF 2km model shows the 12-hour snowfall (Friday 4 am – Friday 4 pm) as averaging 4-8 inches across the state. There is still disagreement about the details even as the storm is starting, but this seems like a reasonable forecast based on the duration and intensity of the storm.

The main change to the forecast is to lower the totals in the southern mountains. With only a few inches on Thursday night and another 3-6 inches (based on the map above) during the day on Friday, the amounts will generally stay below 10 inches except at Wolf Creek where they should go over one foot. Interestingly, the often-more-accurate European model showed these somewhat lower totals in the southern mountains for the last few days even as other models insisted that the southern mountains would see more snow thanks to a stronger wave on Thursday night. It’s unwise to hang your hat on just one model and the European model isn’t always more accurate, but in this case, I should have mentioned the realistic chance for lower totals.

The rest of the forecast should hold as the central and northern mountains should see 4-8+ inches throughout the day on Friday and into early Friday evening. This snow will come through in intense bands from mid-morning through the afternoon and any band could drop 1-3 inches in one hour, reducing visibility to near zero.

The combination of strong bands of snow and strong winds gusting to 40-60+ mph will likely close some roads (due to low visibility) and likely close or delay some exposed lifts. For better visibility and less wind-affected snow, consider skiing near or in the trees or at a lower elevation. Also, the wind isn’t necessarily a bad thing as it’ll pack the snow more densely on the runs and this can nicely cover or buff out the harder snow underneath.

If some lifts are delayed, and if a few inches of snow accumulates after lifts close on Friday afternoon (a real possibility in the northern mountains), then Saturday morning’s first chair should ski very well as you’ll enjoy most of the snow from Friday with calm winds and mostly sunny skies.

There are no changes to the forecast that I posted yesterday.

We’ll see dry weather from Saturday, January 18th through about Tuesday, January 21st.

Our next chance for snow will then be around Wednesday and Thursday, January 22-23rd. This looks like a weak-to-moderate strength system that could favor the mountains near and east of the divide with snow potentially for the cities around the greater Denver area. Right now I am thinking about this storm as a little refresher during the middle of next week rather than a major system.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Saturday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains