Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 9 years ago January 24, 2015

The ridge is in control

Summary:

  • Clouds and flurries/snow showers for northern mtns Sat PM
  • Dry Sunday and Monday, very warm on Monday
  • Weak storm brings light snow Tuesday PM and Wednesday
  • Perhaps another weak storm next Fri PM and Saturday
  • Overall, high pressure is keeping stronger storms away

 

Details:

And ... good Saturday morning. The sunrise over northern Colorado was gorgeous this morning. So we've got that going for us:-) Here's the forecast, then below I'll share some graphics about how much snow we have compared to average.

Saturday through Sunday morning: A storm will stay to the east of Colorado and will give the northern mountains a glancing blow. Look for clouds today and tonight in the north with Saturday afternoon, night, and Sunday morning as the best time for snow showers and minimal accumulations.

Sunday midday through Tuesday midday: Dry and sunny. High temperatures will be in the 30s on Sunday and then will rise into the 40s on Monday. Weather balloons are launched twice a day at Grand Junction (western Colorado) and Denver (east of the mountains), and the highest temperature that these balloons have recorded in the month of January at 10,000ft is about 46 degrees. Monday's 5pm weather balloon is going to challenge this all-time temperature record, though might fall a bit short. Not the kind of record we're looking for around here, but interesting none-the-less. I'll keep you posted.

Tuesday night and Wednesday:  While the western US is covered by a dry and warm ridge of high pressure, a weak system will push under this ridge as it works northward from Mexico. Energy will be weak, temperatures will be warm (freezing levels around 8,000ft), and moisture will be plentiful. This equates to the likelihood of some light to moderate snow with a few inches of accumulation. Right now I'd say the northern half of the state has the best chance for accumulations, though this weak system is going to wobble quite a bit as it pushes through the ridge, and this lowers my confidence in the accuracy of its track forecast.

Next Thursday and Friday: Likely dry, highs in the 30s.

Next Friday night & Saturday: There might be another one of these weak storms from Mexico that meaders north toward Colorado. I'm not expecting much, but perhaps another round of light snow?

Longer range: The ridge of high pressure over the western US will stay in control. This is a similar pattern as last season, except this season the ridge is just a bit further east, closer to Colorado, and this is deflecting storms to our east. Last season the ridge was a bit further west which allowed storms to drop down from Canada and bring snow to the spine of the Rocky Mountains (Montana, Wyoming, Colorado). I'm reaching here, but all models do show a weak system pushing through the ridge just shy of two weeks from now, around February 5th. It's a long shot, but it's the best I have at this point.

Current snowpack: There are still some zones hanging around 100% of average in Colorado, though southern Colorado is well below average, between about 65-85%. The best snowpack in the country is in Wyoming and Montana with data showing 20-40% above average.

colorado snow

 

The graph below shows Colorado's snowpack during the course of the season. The left side of the graph is October 1st (the start of our "Water Year"), and you can see how the snowpack builds through the winter, peaks around early February, and then melts out by mid June. The thick red line is the average.

This season is shown as the thick blue line. As a state, we've generally been below average all season. During the stormy periods around Thanksgiving (late November) and Christmas (late December), the numbers jumped up to average. Again, this is a state-wide graph, so it balances the higher snowfall numbers in northern Colorado with the lower numbers in southern Colorado.

Without much snow forecasted for the next 10-15 days, it's likely that we're going to meet up with the line from the 2011-2012 season.

Of course, there is hope. Notice that there can be large jumps in the snowpack. Last season (WY2014, light blue line) was flat through the end of January then spiked as we moved into February. Perhaps we'll see another few spikes this season, though it won't happen in the next two weeks.

colorado snow

 

That's the scoop for today ... thanks for reading. Since we're enduring benign weather right now, I'll keep things fresh around here by sharing information that doesn't directly relate to the upcoming weather. This includes the snowpack data that I talked about today, and also some industry news that we can discuss in the comments, as well as a new book that will appeal to those of us seeking deep powder. Stay tuned for those topics in the upcoming days.

JOEL GRATZ

PS - The 13th Annual Beacon Bowl & Après Party will take place at Arapahoe Basin Ski Area on Saturday, February 7, 2015. The Beacon Bowl is a full day of beacon search competitions, avalanche dog demos, and a sweet après party with deals on pizza and beer, raffles and a huge silent auction. You already know A-Basin throws one heck of a party, but it’s even better when it’s for a good cause – all proceeds benefit the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC), the team who forecasts backcountry weather and avalanche danger for the entire state. Come on up to the Basin on February 7 to party with a purpose! To learn more or to donate to the CAIC, go to http://opsw.co/1t5VYYp

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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