Summary

• Clouds increase Thursday over the mountains
• Period of heavier precipitation Thursday night, 3-6+ inches of snow
• Drier on Friday, though still showers around
• Unsettled all weekend with times of showers and snow over 10,000 feet
• Next week looks warmer, but still showery

 

Details

The low clouds over the eastern plains held tough on Wednesday, not breaking up and not letting the sun through. As of Thursday morning, they are still there, shrouding the lower elevations while the higher mountains, like Pikes Peak, are above the clouds with plenty of sun.

 

Thursday will be similar to most of the days this spring, with drier weather in the morning, followed by building clouds and showers during the afternoon.

On Thursday evening and night, a storm will move across Colorado from southwest to northeast. This storm will follow a similar track compared to the storm that moved through on Monday night, but it will only drop maybe 1/3 to 1/2 of the precipitation. So look for 3-6 inches of snow over 10,000 feet for many mountains in the San Juans and along and east of the divide. The map below is the precipitation forecast through Friday morning from the Canadian model. Multiply by about 8 to estimate snowfall, though snow ratios will vary quite a bit this late in the season.

 

In the wake of this storm, Friday will be a drier day, though I still can't rule out a few afternoon showers. And the same goes for Saturday, Sunday, and all of next week. During this time, there will be periods of drier weather, but each day will likely offer the chance of showers starting over the mountains and drifting to adjacent areas. In fact, the total precipitation forecast for the next 10 days shows plenty of activity with perhaps another 1+ inches of liquid equivalent through the end of next week. Again, the forecast from the Canadian model:

 

So what does this mean for your outdoor plans over the Memorial Day weekend? I wouldn't call any day a washout, but you'll likely need to deal with the threat of showers each day, and temperatures cold enough to support snow over 10,000 feet. From Monday onward, the daily threat of showers will continue, though temperatures will become warmer and likely raise the snow level up to 12,000+ feet.

Thus, it appears our wet spring weather will continue into June, but temperatures will take an upward turn as we move into the 6th month of the year, which is to be expected. It's hard for the cold air to hang on when the sun angle gets so high in the sky!

I will update one last time on Friday morning (hopefully to talk about the powder that fell on Thursday night), then I'll be offline for about 10 days, returning during the first week of June to begin providing forecasts for summer hiking. If you have any ideas about what you'd like to see in that hiking forecast, please drop them in the comments below or send an email to [email protected]. Thank you!!!

 

 

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

ALONG THE DIVIDE
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

EAST OF THE DIVIDE
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)