Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 8 years ago October 1, 2015

Two lukewarm storms on tap

Summary

  • Mostly dry on Thursday
  • First storm Friday into Saturday
  • Next storm Sunday night through Tuesday
  • Overall pattern is not very cold
  • Don’t see much of a pattern change until mid October, or later


Details

Hi folks!

Thank you for your well wishes via email and the comments. Lauren and I had an absolutely perfect wedding weekend at Buttermilk in Aspen. The weather was sunny and unseasonably warm. The Aspen trees were in full golden yellow. And our close friends and family were all there. It was awesome. I’ll post a few more pictures over the next week or two as we go through the footage, but here is one picture from just before the ceremony, take from the Cliffhouse at the top of Buttermilk, looking south up the Maroon Creek valley.

Ok, on to the weather…

On Thursday will will sneak out mostly dry weather due to an area of high pressure that is nosing into Colorado from the south. Enough moisture moved into the state to bring a few showers and lightning strikes on Wednesday, but the threat of precipitation should decrease on Thursday. To our west, notice the storm (blue colors) that is cut off from the main flow of weather. This will head in our direction for the weekend.

Source: Weatherbell.com

 

By Friday afternoon, the cut-off storm from California will be upon us. Expect a few fast-moving showers and thunderstorms, mostly across the central and northern mountains and plains. Most models are showing relatively dry air working into Colorado as this storm moves across the state, so we likely will not see a lot of precipitation. Instead, its main effect will be to drop temperatures Friday and Saturday, enough so that we might see snow flakes above about 12,000 feet.

Source: Weatherbell.com

 

Although I am not expecting a lot of precipitation, I am concerned about the forecast for Saturday, as some models call for dry, mostly sunny, and cool weather, while other models hint at lots of clouds for the northern half of Colorado due to wrap-around moisture. I’m not sure how this will play out — hopefully we’ll know more in another 24-36 hours.

Then on Sunday, we’ll be between the storm to our north and another cut-off storm over California, so we should experience dry weather with temperatures closer to or just below normal. In short, it’ll feel more like fall, whereas last weekend felt more like summer.

Source: Weatherbell.com

 

Early next week, the second cut-off storm over California will slowly move toward Colorado. The most likely scenario is that the southern mountains will experience the initial precipitation on Sunday night, potentially with snow accumulating down to 10,000 feet. Then all mountains should see cooler and cloudier weather on Monday and Tuesday with the snow level staying around 10,000 feet. This storm will not be a massive snow maker, but it should put a nice coat of white on many mountains.

Source: Weatherbell.com

 

Since both the Friday/Saturday storm and the Monday/Tuesday storm are cut-off storms (cut off from the main west-to-east flow of weather), expect the forecasts to be more uncertain than usual, and for the storms to potentially be a little slower than forecast. I’ll keep you updated as changes occur in the forecast. One thing to watch: The European model is signaling the potential for heavy precipitation on the northeastern plains and foothills next Tuesday, due to a combination of upslope winds (from the east) and the cut-off storm providing additional moisture and lift. The European model ensembles put the chance of heavy precipitation around 20%, so it’s a low chance, but worth watching.

Looking well ahead, the next chance of a storm will be around Saturday, October 10th as a system may side swipe Colorado is it moves from the northwest to the southwest. If it stays to our east, only the plains will see cooler temperatures. If it moves a bit west, perhaps many mountains will get another brief shot of snow.

I do like to talk about snow, but the real story line for the next 10-15 days is that winter is still far from arriving. I do not see any extended periods of cold weather and snow. For that, we’ll likely need to wait until mid month or beyond. I do see slight signals of a pattern shift around mid month, but that’s fantasy land in terms of the models being able to figure things out. If the cold weather and snow doesn’t arrive until late October or early November, that would be fine by me, as that’s when we can really take advantage of the cold weather and fresh snow.

Next update on Friday … 10/2. Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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