Yesterday’s forecast does a good job outlining the current cut-off storm, which will be followed by dry and warm weather for at least one week from Thursday 10/8 through Thursday 10/15.

Last night I did some more digging into the longer range models and was happy to find that the 30-day European model forecast shows a significant shift toward cool / snowy weather during the last 5-10 days of October.

The American and Canadian models do not show this shift, so I am NOT going to get overly excited at this point.

However, the European model is more often than not the more accurate model of the three, so we should put more weight on it. Case in point, one week ago with Hurricane Joaquin, the American and Canadian models were nearly certain that the storm would hit the east coast while the European was the first model to take Joaquin out to sea. The reality was that Joaquin went out to sea. Again, we can’t put all of our eggs into one model, but if there is one to trust as of late, it is the European model.

Couple the above with the fact that previous strong El Nino winters have produced healthy early-season (November-ish) snowfall, and I am optimistic that the end of October and/or early November should provide a significant change from the warm and dry weather that has dominated for much of September through at least mid October.

Food for thought!

JOEL GRATZ

PS - If you're interested in Heli Skiing, check out this gathering hosted by Canadian Mountain Holidays (CMH) in Denver on Wednesday, October 7th. I won't be able to attend, but you should! More details: http://opsw.co/1JPXrns  I skied with CMH twice and had a great time. Here are the pictures from my trip to the Galena lodge in 2012 and from Monashees in 2013.