Summary

Most mountains will enjoy 1-2 inches of new snow this morning while Steamboat should be in the 4-6 inch range by the time the first lifts start spinning. Any lingering snow should taper off by late Friday morning, then most mountains will see dry and warmer weather through next Saturday February 13th. Our next chance for a storm will be sometime around Valentine’s day (February 14th) and perhaps again later the following week, between about February 17-19th.

 

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Details

The weak storm that moved into Colorado on Thursday late afternoon dropped 1-2 inches of snow on most of the central and northern mountains as of Friday’s 5am snow report. We could see another inch or so before the snow tapers off by late morning.

The winner of this most recent storm is Steamboat as they are reporting 4 inches with flakes still flying, so there could be up to six inches for first tracks.

We’ve had a good run of powder during the last week, with snow falling on four or five of the last six days and most mountains reporting totals anywhere from one foot to upwards of three feet.

And, we’ve also done pretty well during the last three to four weeks with most mountains seeing near or just below average snowfall. This was not what I expected during a typical El Nino winter, which usually favors much drier-than average weather during January.

Typical El Nino winters usually bring drier-than-average weather through at least the first half of February, and unfortunately it does appear that this is what will happen this season as we should see generally dry weather for about the next 7-10 days.

The map below shows the forecasted weather pattern for the period from next Monday (2/8) through Friday (2/12). A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and drier weather over the western half of North America while the eastern half should see periods of very cold air and a few storms as well.

Source: Weatherbell.com

 

Most of Colorado should be dry during the next 7-10 days, with the exception of the extreme northern and eastern mountains (roughly Steamboat, Cameron Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, and perhaps down to the Indian Peaks, Berthoud Pass, and Loveland Pass). These areas could get clipped by a few snow flurries or snow showers from Saturday night through Tuesday, but all models are trending toward lower and lower snow totals during this period, so I don’t think we should hold our breath for surprisingly high snow totals. What is more likely is windy weather for the northern divide from about Saturday through Monday-ish.

The precipitation forecast for the next seven days shows that most of the action will stay to our north and east with just a bit of snow for Colorado’s northeastern mountains.

Source: NOAA

 

As the ridge builds over the western US next week, our temperatures will warm and we’ll likely see high temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s at 10,000 feet during the middle and end of next week. Combined with the higher sun angle of February, this should mean that south-facing slopes will have a melt-freeze crust each morning with softer conditions by midday. North-facing slopes should stay in relatively good shape, though the snow may become heavier at lower elevations.

Most models agree that the western ridge will weaken starting around Valentine’s Day (February 14th), and I do see hints of two (weak) storms, first around Valentine’s Day, and the next sometime later the following week, around February 17-19th. Often times, the models break down patterns faster than they should, so I wouldn’t be surprised for ridging to continue in some form through about the third week of February, with more active weather later in the month and into early March.

I hope you got your powder fix earlier this week! If not, don’t fret as we should see more stormy periods before the winter is over, so there will be plenty of time for more powder-chasing sessions:-)

Thanks so much for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)