Summary

Dry and breezy through the weekend, then our next chance for snow will be next Tuesday and Wednesday in northern and central Colorado. Another storm may bring more snow toward the end of October. I don’t see any continuous period of very cold air through the end of the month, which means that temperatures will be on the edge for snowmaking.

Details

The weather on Thursday and Friday will be beautiful with partly sunny skies (just a few high clouds) and warm temperatures. That’s nice for hiking, biking, and climbing, but not the best for snowmaking. Loveland and Abasin are trying to make snow, but I don't think opening day is imminent.

This weekend will offer more of the same with generally dry, partly sunny, and warm conditions. The wind will kick up each day, and there could be a few showers over the far northern mountains on Saturday morning, but otherwise our weather will be rather dull.

The weather is not dull over the Pacific Northwest, however. Checkout the first in a series of storms coming ashore on Friday.

The center of the storm is the area of spin just west of Washington State. The bright colors between the storm and Colorado show high clouds, not all of which are producing precipitation.

A series of storms, starting with this one, will hit the Pacific Northwest between Friday and next Monday. During this time, Colorado will stay on the edge of the storm track, which means breezy weather but little to no precipitation.

The area of storminess will finally move east toward Colorado early next week. Our best chance for snow will occur between Monday afternoon and Thursday morning.

Between now and next Thursday, October 20th, the heaviest precipitation will stay to our north and west. Coastal areas could receive as much as 10-20 inches of rainfall at the lower elevations, from northern California through Oregon, Washington, and British Columba.

The snow forecast between now and next Thursday, October 20th, shows 4+ feet of snow possible at the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest. Here in Colorado, our northern and central mountains could receive a few inches of snow between next Monday night and next Thursday morning.

Since our snowfall in Colorado is still 3-5 days away, it’s best to look at a range of forecast possibilities. From the University of Utah, this graphic shows the snow forecast from the American GFS and Canadian GEM models, and is for Berthoud Pass, near Winter Park in the northern mountains.

According to this forecast, the best chance for snow will occur between Tuesday  and Thursday morning, with a range of 1-25 inches. How’s that for a confident forecast?!

The average of the models shows about 6 inches, and that might be a bit optimistic as many models have hinted that next week’s storm could stay a bit too far to the north of Colorado to bring us significant snow.

Recap

Warm, breezy, and dry from Friday through Sunday. A quick shot of rain and snow is possible on Monday for the northern mountains, then heavier snow is likely sometime between next Tuesday and Thursday morning with a few inches of accumulation in the northern and central mountains. 

Temperatures will be warm through Monday, so snowmaking may only happen for a few hours each night, and that's probably optimistic. Next week's storm should cool temperatures, so snowmaking should crank up from Tuesday night through Thursday.

My thought is that we'd be lucky to have one resort open by next weekend. As much as I like to see continuous storms, I'm ok with warmer and drier weather for a little while longer, as long as the storms start coming in early November, which is when we can really start to build a base.

Extended Outlook

After next week’s storm, we’ll likely experience drier and warmer weather from about Thursday, October 20th through about Tuesday, October 25th. During the final 5-6 days of October, another series of storms should impact the west coast, but I am not sure if those storms will make it to Colorado or if they’ll stay to our north and west.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for updates about next week’s storm:-)

JOEL GRATZ

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