Update on Monday morning

All of the latest models support the forecast I wrote on Sunday evening, which shows snow and rain showers near and north of I-70 on Monday midday and afternoon, with another round of showers from sunset on Tuesday through sunrise on Wednesday. See below for the full post from Sunday evening.

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Summary

Most of the storminess over the west will stay to the north of Colorado. Northern Colorado will be clipped by two pieces of energy, though, so expect snow over the northern mountains on Monday and again on Tuesday night. Amounts should total 3-6 inches. Then Wednesday through early next week will be dry and warmer. Our next chance for a storm will then occur during the last 5-6 days of October.

Details

Most mountains to the north and west of Colorado are getting rocked by a strong series of storms.

The radar animation shows the rain and high-elevation snow falling over northern California, northern Nevada, extreme northern Utah, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, British Columbia, and Alberta, Canada.

The temperatures with this storm are rather warm, which means that snow levels are rather high. However, the summit areas of most northwestern ski areas are receiving measurable snow.

Here in Colorado, we are going to remain on the edge of the storm track, which means that we’ll see breezy weather but not a lot of snow.

Our first chance for snow will occur on Monday midday and afternoon. The storminess to our north will drop just far enough south to bring a line of showers to the mountains near and north of I-70. Snowfall could be intense for a brief period of time, and we might be able to squeak out an inch or two near I-70 to perhaps a couple of inches further north toward Wyoming. Snowfall will stay mostly above 10,000 feet, though flakes could accumulate down to 9,000 feet or a bit lower during heavier showers.

Then, after a break on Monday night and Tuesday morning, a stronger wave of energy will push another line of showers into the central and northern mountains on Tuesday night.

Between Tuesday sunset and Wednesday sunrise, look for 1-3 to 2-4 inches over the northern mountains, and perhaps an inch or two over the central mountains as well. The snow level should drop a bit lower during this wave because cooler air will push in from the north, and because the snow will fall during the cooler nighttime hours.

Recap

Expect 3-6 total inches over the northern mountains with one wave of snow on Monday midday and another wave on Tuesday night.

Extended Outlook

After the snowfall on Monday and Tuesday night, we should return to dry weather from Wednesday through early next week. Our next chance for a storm and snowfall will likely occur during the last 5-6 days of October.

During that window, another series of storms will likely hit the west coast (as is happening now), and hopefully, some of that storminess will drop a bit further south and make a more direct hit on Colorado.

Snowmaking

Temperatures have been 10-20 degrees warmer than average during the last few days, so there hasn’t been much progress when it comes to snowmaking. Temperatures should cool to average or just below average on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, so I expect that the snowmaking will crank up during that time.

Unfortunately, temperatures will likely rise to about 10-15 degrees warmer than normal later this week and this upcoming weekend, so conditions will be on the edge once again for snowmaking.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for updates early this week!

JOEL GRATZ

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