Summary

This weekend will be dry, sunny, and warm. Our next chance for precipitation will occur from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Beyond that time, I have little confidence in the forecast.

Short-Term Forecast

The big news is that Abasin’s opening day is on Friday, October 21st! More details here: http://opsw.co/2dBBZxe

I know that Loveland is also making as much snow as possible and hopes to open soon.

Temperatures have been warm during the last two weeks, generally 5-10+ degrees above average, except for a few brief cool periods, so it’s good to see that some mountains are able to make snow when they can.

For the next few days, I see nothing but beautiful weather with sunny skies, no precipitation, and temperatures that will top out in the upper 40s to low 50s in the mountains.

The weather pattern from now through about Halloween will feature a big trough (storminess) over the Pacific Ocean.

This pattern will keep the heaviest and steadiest precipitation away from Colorado.

To get snow here in Colorado, we’ll need to get lucky as smaller and weaker areas of storminess break off from the main area of storminess and push inland.

One of these weak pieces of storminess will head toward Colorado early next week and should bring precipitation from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

The heaviest precipitation will likely occur in the southern mountains and western parts of the central and northern mountains (Grand Mesa, Flattops). Also, this storm will be warm, with snow levels near or above 10,000-11,000 feet. The highest snow totals could be around 3-6 inches, though most mountains will receive just a few inches.

Following the Monday/Tuesday system, we’ll likely return to dry weather for much of the rest of next week, with another chance for precipitation perhaps around next weekend.

The snow forecast through next week will favor British Columbia, and also eastern Canada and the northeast US where most of the snow will fall during a Nor’ Easter this weekend. Here in Colorado, 7-day snow totals will likely be under 6 inches for most mountains.

Extended Outlook

There are hints in the 10-30 day forecast models that we’ll start to see more storms and cooler temperatures as we head into early-to-mid November. But forecasts at this length (10-30 days) aren’t very trustworthy, so we’ll simply hope for the best and hang on for the ride. I’ll keep you updated if I see any significant and believable trends in the long-range models.

Snowmaking

It’s going to be tough for the next week. Nighttime lows will hover around the freezing mark as temperatures stay about 5-10 degrees above average. Some snowmaking will likely be able to happen now and again, but conditions won’t be ideal, unfortunately!

Thanks for reading and look for my next update on Sunday!

JOEL GRATZ

Monday, October 24th: Live Podcast recording in Boulder

This is going to be awesome. I’ll be joining a live panel with some of the finest folks in the ski industry, talking about what’s new for this season. See the list of dignitaries and RSVP here (or if you can’t see the link, just come to Neptune Mountaineering at 6pm on Monday): http://opsw.co/2ehZ3kC

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