Summary

Abasin is open and all resorts are itching to see colder temperatures to support snowmaking efforts. Unfortunately, temperatures will stay on the edge for snowmaking for the next 1-2 weeks. Our next chance for precipitation will be on Monday night as a warm system brings rain to the lower elevations and snow above about 11,000 feet.

Penn State and the Cubs win!

Completely unrelated to weather in Colorado, but worth mentioning two fun sporting events this weekend…

First, I studied meteorology at Penn State and have enjoyed the camaraderie of watching games with friends for 15 years. Saturday night’s win over #2 ranked Ohio State, after a blocked field goal was returned for a touchdown with 4 minutes to play, was a stunner and sent the entire Larimer Beer Hall, where we were watching the game, into a frenzy. Here’s a recap: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17862988/james-franklin-penn-state-nittany-lions-shock-ohio-state-buckeyes

Second, I grew up near Philly, and am not really a Chicago Cubs fan, but it’s hard to not jump on the bandwagon after they won 5-0 in game 6 and head to the World Series for the first time in 71 years!

Ok … on to the weather!

Short-Term Forecast

The general weather setup shows a trough (storminess) just west of the west coast, and during the next 10 days, this storminess will generally not move.

The loop below shows the 10-day forecast. Look at the blue area on the left side of the image – this is the storminess off the west coast.

Notice how that blue area off the west coast doesn’t really move for most of the next 10 days. That means that we’ll see a rather consistent weather pattern with above-average temperatures and occasional surges of moisture from the southwest every couple of days.

The first surge of moisture will bring rain and snow showers from sunset Monday evening through Tuesday midday/afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will likely occur on Monday night, and temperatures will be warm, so the snow level should hover around 11,000 feet (higher during the start of the storm, lower toward Tuesday morning and during times of heavier precipitation).

A snow level of 11,000 feet is generally near the top of many ski areas, however some ski areas are at a higher elevation, like Loveland and Abasin, where 11,000 feet is about the base elevation.

In terms of precipitation amounts, the heaviest rain and snow will likely fall in the southern mountains and the western part of the central mountains, over to the Grand Mesa and Flattops. Most models show about 0.5 inches of precipitation for these areas, with less as you head east.

This ensemble forecast from the University of Utah predicts about 4 inches of snow at Red Mountain Pass (north of Silverton, east of Telluride), with a range of about 2-6 inches.

This range, about 2-6 inches, seems reasonable for elevations over 11,000 feet in the southern and western mountains. If some cells of heavier precipitation move over a certain location, it’s entirely possible that 10+ inches could accumulate.

Abasin might have a bit of fresh snow on top of their groomed surface on Tuesday morning, so if you need an excuse for midweek skiing, there you go:-) Otherwise, the only powder turns to be had will be for folks willing to hike up to higher elevation and weave their wave downhill through rocks and grass. That might sound awful to some, but it’s actually quite enjoyable as long as you’re not set on returning to your car with scratch-free bases;-)

Extended Outlook

Following the precipitation on Monday night and Tuesday, we'll see dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday.

Another surge of moisture may bring showers sometime on Friday into Saturday, but most models show this storm to be much weaker than the Monday night and Tuesday system.

After that, expect another dry day or two, followed by another surge of moisture sometime around Halloween. That storm is too far away for me to provide any details, so stay tuned.

In About 10 days (near or just before Halloween), most models show that our current weather pattern will change. I don’t know exactly what that will mean, but our current pattern is not conducive to cold air and snow, so I’ll welcome a change and let’s hope it includes a colder flow from the west or northwest, rather than our current warm flow from the south.

Snowmaking

We’re going to be on the edge, in terms of temperatures, through at least the end of October.

Here is the low-temperature forecast for the higher-elevation ski areas around Summit County. The red line is the freezing line.

We’ll cool down a few degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday following Monday night’s storm, so that’s good news and should allow for additional snowmaking.

But then temperatures warm back up for a few days.

The ensembles do show a tendency for cooler temperatures in about 10 days, at the end of October and early November, but of course we can’t be too confident about the specifics of 10-day forecasts.

If you’re wondering how our current temperatures compare to average, here you go:

We’re about 10-15 degrees above normal. That’s a bummer, but we can’t be average or below average all of the time!

If we can turn around this weather pattern heading into November, that would make me very happy. If I don’t see signs of a very favorable pattern change by the first 10 days of November, I’ll start to get a little nervous, but it’s also premature to panic. Warm and dry weather happens - better now than in early January:-)

JOEL GRATZ

Monday, October 24th: Live Podcast recording in Boulder

This is going to be awesome. I’ll be joining a live panel with some of the finest folks in the ski industry, talking about what’s new for this season. See the list of dignitaries and RSVP here (or if you can’t see the link, just come to Neptune Mountaineering at 6pm on Monday): http://opsw.co/2ehZ3kC

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