Looking back…

Now that we’re into December, let’s take a moment to take stock of our current snowpack.

Back on November 15th, things looked bleak. The snowpack in Colorado and most of the western US was 0-20% of average.

During mid-November, we talked about how the long-range forecast showed cooler and stormier weather for the second half of the month.

And by November 30th, my how things have changed and how that long-range outlook came to fruition. Now the snowpack in Colorado and most of the western US is 40-80% of average and increasing.

Looking at Colorado as a whole, our snowpack began to rapidly increase starting in mid-November, and if we continue on our current path (the dark blue line at the bottom left), we could get to a near-average snowpack (the red line) by the middle to end of December.

Of course, to get back to average snowpack in 15-30 days we’ll need a bit of luck. The mid and long-range forecast is promising, so I think we have a decent chance to attain an average snowpack statewide and perhaps even exceed average in some locations.

To the forecast…

Wednesday was a dry and sunny day for the southern and central mountains with more clouds and snow showers in the northern mountains.

Now on Thursday Storm #1 is bringing light snow to many mountains and this should continue through the day and into Thursday night. The storm responsible for this snow is weak, so I expect a dusting to an inch or two of accumulation. Even if accumulations aren’t deep, light, consistent snow and cold weather helps to keep snow conditions soft and continues to build our base. I’ll take it.

On Friday Storm #1 will dive to the south of Colorado, introducing a wind that will blow from the east. An east wind is best for the eastern mountains, places like Eldora, Monarch, Wolf Creek, and the Sangre de Cristo mountain range. The high-resolution CAIC WRF 4km model is forecasting 1-3 inches of snow for the areas I just mentioned, with perhaps a bit more around Wolf Creek. An east wind is not good for most other mountains, so I expect another day of light snowfall with some breaks of sun.

If you’re looking to ski powder during the next few days, you can take advantage of the light accumulations on Thursday into Friday at most mountains, and Wolf Creek (which is 95% open) might have the highest totals on Friday and/or Saturday morning. Also, many mountains are opening new terrain on a daily basis, and if you can catch a rope drop, that will really be the time to ski the best powder because you’ll be able to make turns through all of the snow that’s fallen during the previous two weeks.

Saturday and Sunday should be dry and sunny for most mountains, though the northern mountains may see more clouds and a few flurries or light snow showers.

We’ll have two chances for snow next week.

Storm #2 will bring snow from Sunday night through Wednesday morning. The track of the storm is not set, so I cannot tell you which mountains will get the most snow on which days. If you’re trying to plan ahead for a mid-week powder day, Tuesday could be the best storm-skiing day, with powder available for Wednesday morning first chair. Most models project about 6-12 inches as an average for most mountains, though of course this will vary quite a bit and we’ll figure out the details in the coming days. The graphic below is for central Colorado and is a range of forecasts produced by the University of Utah.

In the wake of the storm, Wednesday will be a very cold day with high temperatures near or just above zero.

Storm #3 should bring snow next weekend, Saturday and Sunday, December 10-11. Hopefully this storm will bring a powder day for the weekend warriors!

Thanks for reading and have a great Thursday!

JOEL GRATZ

1) I am giving a talk at the Topo Designs store at 9th and Pearl St in Boulder on Tuesday, December 6th. Come for beers and snacks at 6pm and I’ll give a 30-minute talk starting around 630pm.

2) Contest – Prepare for the upcoming season with the Gear Up For Winter Sweepstakes presented by Liftopia! Prizes include new DPS skis, limited edition SPY goggles, Yakima cargo box, and $1,500 worth of gift cards from Liftopia, EVO, and The Feed. Enter to Win: http://opsw.co/2gdRiuy

3) We are writing Daily Snow posts specific to Steamboat (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/steamboat), Copper (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/copper), Vail (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/vail), and Breckenridge (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/breckenridge).

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains
Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains