The snowfall on Monday and Monday night was nothing short of incredible. We saw 4 inch-per-hour snowfall rates at many mountains, and nearly every mountain is reporting 10-20 inches of new snow from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. I was expecting deep powder on Tuesday morning, and these numbers met or exceeded my expectations for most mountains. Here are the 24-hour totals ending on Tuesday at 500am.

Northern mountains along the divide:

• Loveland - 18”
• Keystone - 16”
• Abasin - 15”
• Eldora - 12”
• Winter Park - 9”

Northern mountains

• Breckenridge - 17”
• Copper - 16”
• Beaver Creek - 11”
• Steamboat - 9”
• Vail - 9”
• Granby - 5”

North-central mountains

• Aspen Highlands - 16”
• Aspen Mountain - 15”
• Snowmass - 13”
• Cooper - 12”
• Buttermilk - 12”
• Sunlight - 8”
• Powderhorn - 6”

South-central mountains

• Crested Butte - 19”
• Monarch - 18”

Southern mountains

• Wolf Creek - 17"
• Purgatory - 14”
• Telluride - 13”
• Silverton - 8"

Crested Butte received so much snow on Monday (at 4 inch-per-hour rates in the morning) that they closed the mountain. Here is a video of the snow piling up: http://opsw.co/2iA9IaE

The only downside for powder skiing is that temperatures on Monday were warm, sitting around 32F at around 10,000 feet. This means that the snow that fell was thick and dense. This is actually a good thing for our state as a whole, however, because dense snow means that there is a lot of water in the snowpack, and water is extremely valuable in Colorado. We’ll take every drop!

Also, the deep amounts of dense, heavy snow has increased the avalanche hazard. If you’re planning to go into the backcountry, PLEASE consult CAIC first (http://opsw.co/KPDmaL) and dial down your terrain choices. Natural avalanches (non-human triggered) have already closed roads and CDOT has also preemptively closed roads for avalanche mitigation (list of road closures: http://opsw.co/1KY48Lt).

In terms of snow quality on Tuesday, the temperature on Monday evening dropped about 10-15 degrees, so the snow on top should be fluffier than the snow on the bottom. This is how we like it, but I still suspect that all of the snow will be more dense than is average here in Colorado.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night we will be in between storms. A fetch of moisture from the Pacific Ocean will continue to bring clouds and light-to-moderate snow to most mountains, though accumulations will be much lower than what we experienced on Monday and Monday night.

On Wednesday and Wednesday night intense snowfall should return as another wave of energy crosses Colorado. I suspect the deepest skiing will take place on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday first chair as the heaviest snow will likely accumulate later on Wednesday.

This second wave of snow is already visible moving into the west coast (radar image is from Tuesday morning).

The University of Utah ensemble forecast shows that another 6-12 inches could accumulate in the northern mountains.

The south-central mountains, like Crested Butte and Monarch, should once again be favored as the wind will blow from the west-southwest. These areas could see another 12-20 inches.

The southern mountains should receive another 6-12 inches through midday Thursday, but the more interesting time for the southern mountains will be Friday and beyond (the times in each graphic are given in GMT, so subtract 7 hours to convert to Mountain Standard Time).

I said that the southern mountains would be more interesting on Friday and through the weekend and that’s because the final part of this week’s storm will cut off from the main west-to-east flow of weather, and this storm will hang out to the south of Colorado.

These cut-off storms are hard to forecast (they meander and do their own thing) and there will likely be big changes to the forecast for Friday through the weekend.

Right now, it appears that the central and northern mountains could see times of clouds and light snow on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. During this time, the southern mountains (especially Wolf Creek and Purgatory) could receive significant snow, with powder possible on Friday and/or through the weekend.

Forecasting snowfall last week and this week has been a treat as big-time Pacific Moisture means big-time snow, and I am beginning to look at the weather maps in terms of feet of snow instead of inches. We have not seen this amount of moisture hit Colorado, continuously, for many years, so let’s celebrate it by (safely) skiing pow!

Once the cut-off storm moves away from Colorado early next week, I think most of next week will be dry (January 16-20).

Then, after a new weather pattern is established, most models show storms returning to Colorado starting with the first one on or around January 20-21st. The storms during the last 10 days of January will likely offer lower amounts of snow and less continuous snow than we’ve seen during the past 7-10 days, but as long as it keeps snowing, we will all be very happy:-)

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Powderchaser Steve is writing “The Chase” which helps you to chase powder across the western US. Check it out here: http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/chase

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains