So close but so far. Northern Utah picked up 10-15 inches of snow on Tuesday night, but the cold front that produced the snow will not make it to Colorado until Thursday, so we’ll need to wait until then to receive heavier snow.

Wednesday will be warm, windy, and dry for most mountains, with a few showers over the far northern mountains.

Then the cold front will push through between late Wednesday night and mid-morning on Thursday. Expect snow to start between midnight and sunrise on Thursday and continue through Thursday, Thursday night, Friday, and Friday night. After an initial wave of heavier snow on Thursday morning (associated with the cold front), the snowfall should be more showery from Thursday through Friday night.

There will be some powder on Thursday, and conditions should be the softest and deepest on Friday. Since we’ll see a wind blowing from the west during most of Thursday and Friday, mountains like Steamboat, Beaver Creek, Aspen, and Irwin could be favored. Also, some energy will hang back over northwestern Colorado on Thursday night into Friday morning, so there could be a period of steadier snow during this time, which would make Friday morning a really nice time to enjoy fresh pow.

The CAIC WRF model shows that snowfall from Thursday morning through Friday evening should be in the 5-10 inch range for the northern mountains, central mountains, the north side of the southern mountains (Telluride, Silverton).

The University of Utah ensemble forecast tells a similar story. This model is only produced for certain areas (usually with a SNOTEL site), which is why I often show the forecast for the same locations. At Vail Pass, the average forecast is for about 6 inches.

The average forecast is for about 10 inches at McClure Pass in the central mountains, which can do well with a west wind.

The southern part of the southern mountains, around Purgatory and Wolf Creek, should receive lower totals, likely around 3-5 inches.

Once the Thursday/Friday storm passes, Saturday and Sunday will be on the drier side, BUT there will be some energy moving across Colorado and some mountains will likely see another period of snow during the weekend, though I don’t know exactly when or where.

Things will get interesting as a second storm should bring heavy snow to Colorado between later Sunday and next Wednesday morning.

The heavy snow should start in the southern mountains on Sunday evening and Monday, then cover the entire state from Monday evening through Wednesday morning. The University of Utah ensemble forecasts above show about 10-30 inches falling early next week, favoring the southern mountains. Next Monday should be a powder day in the southern mountains, next Tuesday should be snowy at all mountains, and Wednesday morning could be great in the northern mountains.

Following this system, next Wednesday and Thursday should be dry, then a third storm will likely bring snow next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (March 3-5).

Lots of snow coming … this should be fun!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains