We are starting the week with a continuation of the warm, dry, and sunny weather that we’ve seen for the last 7 days. This warmth is promoting melting in the snowpack, which has just dropped below average statewide (blue line versus red line).

The warm and dry weather will continue through Tuesday afternoon, and then a weak storm to our north will drag showers across the central and northern mountains between Tuesday evening and Wednesday mid-afternoon. Temperatures during this time will be rather warm, so the snow level should be high, perhaps 9,000-10,000 feet with snow above this elevation and rain below. Total snow and/or rain should be rather limited, though, with just a few inches of snow possible. Here is the CAIC WRF model forecast for this time showing the likelihood of a few inches for the northern mountains.

We should see drier weather return on Wednesday evening, then Thursday will be an unsettled day with showers possible ahead of the next storm which will arrive on Friday.

The forecast for the storm on Friday is challenging as there is not a lot of agreement between the models. Looking at all model updates this morning, I’d say the best chance to ski fresh powder will be on Friday and/or on Saturday morning. Also, the northern mountains will be favored with higher accumulations. The latest models take the storm on a bit more of a northerly track, which may result in more snow for areas near and west of the divide with less snow east of the divide (this is different than what I talked about yesterday.

Have a great Monday, thanks for reading, and look for my next update on Tuesday morning.

JOEL GRATZ