The ski season is officially underway as Arapahoe Basin is open daily (as of Friday, October 13th) and Loveland will likely open soon as well.

This past weekend, a fast-moving cold front hit the northern mountains on midday Saturday. A dusting to two inches of snow fell from near Eldora north to Cameron Pass and the Wyoming border. The flakes stayed away from most other mountains.

Looking ahead to this week, we will see dry, mostly sunny, and warm weather through Friday.

The map below shows calmer weather with the warmer colors. The only action (blue colors) this week will be in the Pacific Northwest where western Canada will see significant snow at higher elevations.

This map changes (blue colors) on Saturday when the 10th storm of this young season will hit Colorado.

When Storm #10 hits, it will be marked by a sharp decrease in temperatures. Below is the high-temperature forecast for Berthoud Pass, near Winter Park. Notice the 15-20 degree drop in temperatures from Thursday and Friday to Saturday.

How much snow should we expect from the storm on Saturday, October 21st? The average of 51 versions of the European model point to roughly 0.4-0.6 inches of liquid equivalent for Berthoud Pass (green bars at the bottom).

This would translate to about 4-8 inches of snow. I that's a reasonable initial forecast range for all mountain areas. The models do not know if this storm will hit us directly and hang around through Sunday, or if it will head a bit further north and move through more quickly on Saturday. The forecast of 4-8 inches roughly splits the middle of these two scenarios.

Temperatures will cool on Saturday as the storm moves through, but they will NOT be very cold, so I expect snow to fall down to 7,000-8,000 feet, but likely not lower than that.

Once Storm #10 moves away after next weekend, it appears that during next week, there could be a shot of cold air (and snow?) that hits the foothills and plains east of the divide, with little or no snow west of the divide.

Don't panic ... there is little to no correlation between early-season snow and what we'll see for the rest of the season. My advice is to enjoy the nice weather and not to worry ... more consistent snowfall will be here soon enough.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Colorado Forecast Page → https://opensnow.com/state/co

Talks

Join me in Nederland (~20 minutes west of Boulder) on Tuesday, October 17th at Salto. The kitchen will be open until 9 pm, so come around 630 to purchase food and a drink and then I'll give a talk from 700-730ish with questions to follow. I'll go over the various models that I use to predict this winter's snowfall, show my favorite websites that provide snow and weather data (outside of OpenSnow), and give a few tips about chasing powder. More info and RSVP:

https://www.facebook.com/events/124294131607804/

Events

Canadian Mountain Holidays (CMH) heli-skiing is hosting a gathering on Thursday, October 19th in Denver. If you are curious about heli-skiing with CMH, please RSVP for the event. I am NOT giving a talk but will be there with my wife and new son to hang out and answer any questions about my previous three trips with CMH. RSVP here: http://opsw.co/2ifLhnq

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains