Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 6 years ago October 28, 2017

Tricky storm on Halloween will bring significant snow to a small area

Summary

Expect snow showers over the northeastern mountains on Saturday, with dry weather on Sunday. Then the eastern mountains will see a few inches of snow on Monday morning, followed by more significant snow over the central or southern mountains on Halloween day. The longer-term pattern through early/mid November looks stormy across the west.

Short Term Forecast

Reader photos

First up, a reader-submitted photo from Thursday at Loveland. Love the sunlight hitting the distant slopes!

This weekend

A faster flow from the north is bringing just enough moisture to produce snow showers over the divide from I-70 north to Wyoming. Because of this, snowflakes will fall on Saturday around the Indian Peaks, Rocky Mountain National Park, and Cameron Pass. Snow accumulation should be very light, an inch or less.

On Sunday, conditions should be dry across the state.

Monday morning storm

A fast-moving storm from the north should bring snow to the slopes east of the divide early on Monday morning. Top accumulations should be in the 2-4 inch range east of the divide. Near the divide and west, expect just a dusting to an inch.

Tuesday Halloween storm

In the wake of the fast-moving eastern storm on Monday, there will be a chance for significant snow on Tuesday for some part of central Colorado.

Lingering moisture and just enough storm energy will combine somewhere over central or southern Colorado to create a brief period of heavy snow sometime on Monday night into Tuesday.

Total snowfall from this storm should be 5-10 inches for the most favored areas.

Where area these favored areas? I wish I could say.

The deepest snow will fall along a narrow area of perhaps 50 miles in width. This is a small area by atmospheric standards, so it's hard to say exactly where this heavy snow will fall even three days before the storm.

Slight shifts in the models can mean big differences in the forecast. Here are the last three forecasts from the Canadian weather model, each made 12 hours apart. Notice how the heaviest snow shifts from northern Colorado, to the central mountains, to the southern mountains.

Since the models are flip-flopping around, it's best to look at a range of models and take an average.

Below is the University of Utah ensemble forecast which combines many versions of the Canadian and American GFS models. This graphic is for McClure Pass, just west of Aspen and south of Sunlight.

Notice that the snowfall forecast on Halloween ranges from 0-14 inches. That's quite the range! The average, shown by the thick blue line, is about 7-8 inches, which feels about right.

At this point, I'd venture that the best chance for 5-10 inches of snow on Monday night into Tuesday will be south of I-70 and near or north of the northern San Juan mountains. This area includes Sunlight, Aspen, Crested Butte, and Monarch.

Significant snow could fall south or north of this favored area, but right now, I think these central mountains have the best shot at significant snow because the average of many models favor this area, plus the forecasted wind direction from the west or west-southwest favors this area.

Extended Forecast

Following the storm on Tuesday, the first 10-ish days of November should be active across the west. I cannot say exactly when Colorado will see additional snowfall, but I bet that at least a few of the first 10 days of November will bring snow to Colorado, and some of the snowfall could produce significant accumulations around an above 10,000 feet. The pattern is changing for the better ... woohoo!

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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