The current storm has two parts.

The first part targeted northern Colorado from Saturday night through Sunday midday. Mountains near I-70 picked up a few inches, with the highest resort totals coming in around 6 inches at Winter Park and Steamboat.

Speaking of Steamboat, while the mountain is not yet open, there was a massive crowd poaching the powder on Sunday. After viewing the timelapse of the webcam, it looked like the crew got away without being caught. Good for them!

While the highest totals on Saturday night at resorts were about 6 inches, non-resort mountains saw far more snow, which is what I thought would likely happen. Here are the totals from Saturday night's snowfall based on SNOTEL backcountry weather stations.

Tower (north of Steamboat) - 17"

Never Summer (west of Rocky Mountain National Park) - 14"

Cameron Pass - 13"

Rocky Mountain National Park - 12"

Monday's forecast

The northern mountains should have a few fresh inches by Monday morning following scattered showers on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. For the rest of Monday, expect continued snow showers in the northern and central mountains with scattered accumulations.

Monday night through Wednesday morning

This is the second part of the storm. Unlike the first part of the storm, which dropped the most snow in the far north, the second part of the storm should spread snow from I-70 south to the central and southern mountains. The southern mountains should get the most.

My thought on total snowfall during this time is 4-8 inches, with some locations hitting double digits. I have lower-than-usual confidence for a storm that will begin within 24 hours of my forecast, though, because the models are all over the place.

For example, here are two images, both showing the snow forecast for Tuesday night, with the first image showing a model that was created 6 hours before the second image.

That is a BIG difference between the models.

Especially when models do not agree, it's best to look at an average of many models. Here is the European ensemble forecast, which is an average of 51 versions of the European model.

The green bars show the average snow forecast across the 51 versions.

The central mountains, including Aspen, are trending toward 3-6 inches.

The southern mountains, including Purgatory and Wolf Creek, are trending toward 6-9 inches.

This supports the trend of dropping the heaviest snow in the southern mountains through Wednesday morning.

When to find powder

Only Loveland and Arapahoe Basin are currently spinning lifts, and I'd say that there's a decent chance for a bit of fresh snow both Monday morning, as well as Tuesday. Wednesday morning might have fresh snow as well, but that's a lower probability. Elsewhere, if there was a solid base in the southern mountains, I would say that Tuesday and Wednesday would be powder days, but alas, we're a bit early for that.

The next chance for snow will be on Saturday, but most of the moisture will stay to our northwest.

After that, another storm will head toward the Rockies early next week, but again, the most snow may stay to our northwest.

Here is the 5-day precipitation forecast from Friday through next Tuesday. Colorado will be on the edge.

Thanks for reading, and I hope to see some of you at my upcoming talks in Golden and Colorado Springs (details below).

JOEL GRATZ

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Colorado Forecast Page → https://opensnow.com/state/co

Next Talks

Golden on Wednesday, November 8th
- Bent Gate Mountaineering, 1313 Washington Ave, Golden, CO 80401
- My talk will start at 600pm
- More details: https://www.facebook.com/events/1209665705844183/

Colorado Springs on Wednesday, November 15th.
- Bristol Brewing, 1604 S Cascade Ave, Colorado Springs, CO 80905
- My talk will start at 630pm
- Hosted by The Mountain Chalet, a local outdoors shop

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains