There is always fun weather to talk about, even when it's not snowing.

I spent Sunday evening on a hike with my wife and son in Boulder, and we caught a beautiful sunset as the sky was filled with wave clouds. These clouds can look dull during the day, but the low angle of the setting sun illuminates multiple layers and sets the sky on fire.

Back to snowfall, the most snow is to states that sit to our north and west, where is the base is 150-300 percent of average.

In Colorado, the deepest snowpack is in the northern mountains with much less in the southern mountains. Averaging the entire state, we're at about 70-75% of average.

The thick blue line in the lower left of the below graphic shows the snowpack trend so far this season. Last season at this time, there was essentially no snow on the ground, so it's easy to be ahead of last year but we're still behind average.

You can see graphics like this for each location in Colorado and for most mountains across the western US and western Canada. For example, the chart for Arapahoe Basin (below) shows that their snowpack is at 95% of average. This data comes from the SNOTEL network of remote backcountry weather stations, and we interpolate it to estimate numbers at ski areas since most SNOTEL stations are NOT located at ski areas.

Snow on Monday night and Tuesday

We'll see a weak storm clip the northern mountains on Monday night through Tuesday. Snow will accumulation from I-70 and north, and about from Vail Pass to the east. The latest models show that this storm will be a bit stronger than earlier forecasts, so I'd expect anywhere from a coating to 4 inches. A few models show 6+ inches, which is possible because we'll have a good bit of moisture in the air, but temperatures will also be on the warmer side (the upper 20s) which isn't conducive to big snow totals.

Following the snow on Tuesday, most of the rest of the week and weekend should be dry. Areas near and north of I-70 might see a few showers, but I doubt we'll get much accumulation.

Here is the forecast weather pattern during Thanksgiving Day. Red colors indicate warm and dry weather.

The good news is that most models show a more active pattern setting up next week, with the first storm arriving on or near November 29th. Here is the average forecast from 51 versions of the European model. Blue colors indicate cooler and stormier weather.

The even better news is that most models show a continuation of the active pattern as we move into early December. Again, the average of 51 versions of the European model.

None of this means that we are guaranteed big snow on November 29th and every day after. It simply means that the weather pattern will likely become stormier and colder across the western US, and this could translate into more consistent snow here in Colorado.

My fingers are crossed that this pattern change materializes starting next week.

Thanks for reading and look for my next post on Tuesday morning!

JOEL GRATZ

Colorado Forecast Page
https://opensnow.com/state/co

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains