Due to the cold weather of the past week and the low sun angle in December, most of the snow that has fallen is still on the ground, especially on north-facing slopes.

Here is a reader-submitted picture taken on Sunday, December 10th from a commercial airliner. Most runs and mountains are covered in snow, though the depth of the snow is shallow.

In my post on Sunday, I compared the percent of open terrain at Colorado resorts. To see those stats, click back to my last post here: http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/colorado/post/9298

To see the latest snow report comparison for Colorado, go here:
http://opensnow.com/state/co/reports

The weather from Monday through Friday will be dry for most mountains. There is a slight chance that a storm from the north will clip the northern and eastern mountains on Thursday. Only one run of one model shows this, and normally I wouldn't mention such a low chance, but with this dry weather pattern, I'll mention any chance of natural snow!

Temperatures this week will be comfortable with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s. These readings will allow crews to make snow most nights, so I do expect some expansion of the inbounds terrain this week.

The storm track will shift south just a bit, and this means that Colorado's northern mountains could get clipped by storms on Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday. At best we might see 6-12 inches over a few days. At worst we'll see just a dusting in the far northern mountains. It'll come down to the storms tracking a few miles south or north. I'll keep you posted each day as I look at the latest models.

After this upcoming weekend, there will be another chance for some snow between about the 20-23rd. I have almost no confidence in this, but some models show a storm hanging around the central Rockies, so I wanted to mention it.

The graphic below shows the percent chance of getting more than 6 inches of snow between now and December 25th. The data is generated by 51 versions of the European model. This model isn't always correct, so don't get too despondent, but the message isn't super pretty for natural snowfall. Just a 30-60% chance for respectable snow totals in the northern mountains, and lower chances further south.

As I said yesterday, I always try to find the good news, but if our goal is a lot of natural snowfall in the next two weeks, I can't find much good news. At this point, be thankful that we have terrain open and that temperatures are cold enough for snowmaking, which should help to open a limited amount of additional terrain over the next two weeks.

When will this dry pattern change? Often, it takes longer than the models think. For the last few days, the models have shown a pattern change during the final 5-10 days of December. Based on my experience that the models are too fast with a pattern change, I'd venture that we might not see a real change until January. I wish I didn't just write that, and I hope that I am wrong and that the atmosphere produces more natural snow later this month than what the models expect.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

10-Year Anniversary Party!

Monday, December 18th at West Flanders in Boulder, CO at 700pm

* I wrote my first snow forecast email titled "Colorado Powder Forecast" on December 18, 2007.

* Ten years (and lots of powder days) later, let's party.

* I will give a short talk to start the night off.

* Wear your Colorado Powder Forecast t-shirt and I'll buy your drinks:-)

* Happy hour prices all night.

* Details and RSVP: https://www.facebook.com/events/836050909911243/

 

OpenSnow bookmarks

Colorado Forecast Page:
https://opensnow.com/state/co

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains