Here was the scene at Telluride on Sunday morning as the last storm cleared out. Gorgeous!

It’s great to have fresh snow on the ground and to have more in the forecast.

Yes, our snowpack across Colorado is still below average, and it will likely continue to be below average even with the addition of this week’s storm, but many mountains have a reasonable amount (or a lot) of terrain open despite the lack of snow this season, so don’t despair and think there is no skiing to be done. If that's your attitude, you'll miss 100% of the powder on the days that you don't ski:-)

To the forecast...

On Monday, expect dry weather and partly-to-mostly cloudy skies as high-level moisture pushes into the Rockies ahead of our next storm.

On Monday night through Tuesday, we might see a few showers in the western-most mountains, but any accumulations should be light.

Then from Tuesday night through midday Wednesday, the storm will track near or south of Colorado’s southern border, and this should first bring snow to the southern mountains with potential powder on Wednesday morning.

As the wind direction switches to blow from the west and northwest later on Wednesday, the central and northern mountains should begin to get more snow.

The snow should continue in the northern mountains through Thursday morning, then we might see dry weather Thursday afternoon, only to have snow return to the northern mountains on Thursday night and Friday morning.

I think the best time to ski powder will be:
* Wednesday: Southern mountains
* Thursday: Central & northern mountains
* Friday: Northern mountains

The University of Utah ensemble forecast, which shows snow totals for the American GFS and Canadian models, produces a range of 5-15 inches for this storm, based on a forecast point in the middle of Colorado at McClure Pass.

The NCEP WPC model below, which is an average of many models, produces about 0.5  to 1.0 inches of liquid equivalent, and when we convert to snow at a 14-to-1 ratio (roughly average, perhaps a bit lower than average due to the warmer temperatures at the start of the storm), the model shows a range of 7-14 inches, in line with the University of Utah forecast.

Again, the best chance for powder will be on Wednesday in the southern mountains, then Thursday morning in the central and northern mountains, and Friday morning in the northern mountains.

Following this week’s storm, we should see dry weather from about Saturday, January 13th through about Wednesday, January 17th. The graphic below is a newer version of the model compared to my post on Sunday, though it looks almost the same.

Then, starting on or around January 18th, a stormier pattern should set up for the central Rockies, including Colorado.

Let’s get through this week’s storm, then it’ll be time to focus on the details of the storms potentially starting on or around January 18th.

Thanks for reading and I hope to see some of you at my talk in Frisco on Wednesday night … details below!

JOEL GRATZ

You are invited to my presentation titled “Pray for Snow Party and Snow Science Talk”
* Wednesday, January 10th
* Frisco Day Lodge (621 Recreation Way, Frisco, CO)
* Doors open at 500pm
* Talk from 530pm - 630pm
* Parking is free
* Cash bar available ($4 beer or wine)

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains