If you're headed up the mountain this weekend, you are in for a treat of some new snow. we'll get a little more coverage Thursday night. Head back up next week if you can get a day off because the turns will be worth the wait. Heads-up for the longer term: after next week, the doors are going to swing wide open for a series of storms that will be sure to please. Confidence is high that this will be exactly what we have been waiting for all winter, the long-promised La Nina storm track. And it's aimed right at us.
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Short Term Forecast
Heres the current snowpack water equivalent across Idaho compared to the 30-year normals. You can clearly see the areas that are deficient in Yellow and Red colors below, while those who have prospered are in Green, which is close to normal.
This Week through Sunday, January 21st
We'll see a weak wave tonight, but it's not going to bring fanfare. On Thursday night and Friday, however, we'll start to crank up the snow machine again, just in time for the weekend.
I'm even seeing some Pink spots on that forecast for Bogus so they won't have to wait much longer. Here's how the European model is tracking their storms this week through early next week (Right side of the graph below shows 9 inches.
Monday, January 22 through Saturday, January 27
The ensemble members of the longer-term computer models all shout a very active and snowy pattern for this period next week, starting with a rich Monday-Tuesday storm. Below is the GFS version with areas of lower pressure in Blue Colors, suggesting stormy weather:
How much snow next week? Well, from the Bogus Basin forecast graph above you saw about 9 inches on Monday-Tuesday. The Idaho Panhandle resorts will get a couple feet. The graph below is a conservative estimate for Schweitzer, but Silver Mountain will fare the same.
Something interesting to note is that for Bogus Basin (shown above) and Brundage Mountain, the "Mean" value of the ensemble members (Green bars on the graph) is actually higher than what the official forecast is (Blue bars). That's why I say the graph is a conservative value, we could get a whole lot more!
January 29 through February 3
I realize this is a long way out, but there may be a couple day break over the weekend of the 27th and 28th, then a really strong storm punching in for the week of the 29th. Even though this part of the forecast has the most uncertainty right now, it could potentially become the biggest powder maker we've seen all year, so it bears watching.
Stay tuned for updates and thank you for reading.
Avalanche Danger continues to be Moderate / Considerable. Stay Informed:
West Central Mountains:
Bogus Basin, Brundage Mountain, Tamarack
Idaho City, Banner Ridge, Lowman, More’s Creek
Central Mountains, Sawtooth Mountains, and Wood River Valley:
Sun Valley, Soldier Mountain, Galena Lodge
Panhandle/Coeur d’Alene Mountains:
Schweitzer, Silver Mountain
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