Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

By Justin Berk, Posted 9 years ago November 13, 2014

Light snow tonight but what will stick

This is our first round of wintry weather of the season, let alone in this arctic pattern. It will be a test of the computer models as well as the pattern itself. I often compare a few models and show the similarity or contrast the difference. As a forecaster, I rely on these models, but only as guidance. They are not perfect.  But seeing how they behave initially is critical to get an idea further down the road.  Even less than a day away, it appears the handling of the situation is not very good.

Check out the overnight forecast for this morning compared to the precipitation. 

 

The radar looks more impressive than both the Canadian and GFS had shown, but then again, a lot of this is virga (not reaching the ground). Still, it looks like it is leaning towards more moisture.

The GFS Model has gone much more aggressive for the developing system. It slows it down and intensifies it more. The suggestion of 0.6” liquid for Baltimore seems too much. Note that warm ground would melt much of this. However the timing after dark between 6 PM and 11 PM would help for some stickage, especially on the grass.

 

Model Comparison

 

This plays into the hands of PA and New England best.  The Poconos might end with the best shot in our region. There might be a few spots with 1-2 inches of snow. This will all be overnight and end before daybreak. That gives it the best chance to stick, especially with temperatures that might near or above freezing.

Snow and Stickage According to NWS:

 

There will be another shot of snow on Sunday night into Monday. There is still a wide range suggesting how this might suggest. After seeing how this behaves, then we may have a better handle on the next event.

High temperatures next week:

Poconos stay in the 30s

Southern PA near 40F

Western PA, MD, and West Virginia: The peaks will stay below freezing, especially mid week. I imagine the most aggressive resorts will have their snow guns blaring. If so, it will be worth exploring the snow cams to get us in the mood.

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