MONTANA WINTER 2016-17 PREVIEW …

 Howdy all you powder cowboys and cowgirls! It’s getting downright exciting reading all these scientific predictions from the Feds back in Washington. One thing we Big Sky stater's do know – is you can’t always trust those long term winter forecasts from those hombres back east! Just look at last winter, we braced ourselves for an El Nino warm and dry one and received a winter generally above average in precipitation and near average in temperatures. No complaints here or from any local at Big Sky! That said, the folks at NOAA did get their temperature predictions 80% right across the rest of the lower 48 for 15/16.

 SUMMARY

 Yup, if we can look past last year’s prediction “errors” up here in the Northern Rockies, we may have cause for some skeptic optimism. Just a month ago it looked like we were heading into the meteorological purgatory of an ENSO-Neutral winter prediction. But wait! Since then there have been some major swings in Pacific ocean temps and standing ice over the arctic, snowpack in Siberia, etc.. so now our amigos at NOAA have issued an official La Nina Watch. What this means is that currently there is now a 70% chance we will fall into a La Nina pattern for the upcoming winter. The official Winter Outlook issued on October 20^th incorporates this 70% , so we’ll call our Winter Preview; “La Nina Lite”.

 We like anything La Nina in Montana, Lite or full strength. Either way this current prediction and expected pattern could, and I’ll say it again could, result in a 40% or greater than average precipitation chances across all of Montana’s mountain regions. Downplaying this scenario is an EC or equal chance to temperature norms which plays in a huge swing of possibilities ranging from 33% warmer to exact normal to 33% colder. It’s the “I don’t know” factor of long range predictions. But wait! Take a look at the nice temperature prediction map below. Notice that Northeastern Montana, along with North Dakota and Minnesota are shaded in light blue meaning a chance of 33-40% below average temperature norms. This forecaster thinks it’s logical to surmise that the rest of Montana, the mountainous parts, may actually be closer to normal or even slightly below normal temperatures. I may be going out on a limb on that but it does make sense – especially to a skier!

 In Montana’s mountains, last March and April were a powder skiers spring to remember. That particular snowy weather pattern was attributed to a constant barrage of storms brought on by an active Northwesterly Flow. Those of you who read my daily reports should recognize this term as it was a powder maker for us up North. It’s not always light and dry but it comes in consistently with 3-6” dumps, one after the other after the other. With the Winter Outlook for the Northern Rockies, Northwesterly Flows look to return in force as weather makers for Montana’s snow riders from Missoula to Kalispell to Bozeman.

 La Nina Lite, we will reserve the right to be skeptically optimistic.

 

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS

So, here we are in late October and its been raining in the valleys and snowing in the high country for most of the month. In fact, Kalispell, Montana (near Whitefish) just broke their all time October precipitation record of nearly 3.5 inches. All over Montana, the mountain tops are white and snowpack is starting to stack up. Snotel sights around Western Montana have ranged from 24” in Glacier National Park to 18” along the Bitterroot Divide with Idaho. East of the Divide, there is slightly less with around 10” in high country south of Big Sky and around 6” on the ridge tops near Bridger Bowl. These snowpack numbers have declined a bit over the last few days as we are currently in a warmer Pacific weather system. We do expect the temps to drop by Halloween weekend and the snow to start accumulating again. Make sure to keep ULLR happy – he likes bonfires, beer and lots of sacrifices (especially straight skies - just not Rossignols).

 

Powder out.