MONTANA WINTER 2017-18 PREVIEW …

Welcome back all you powder cowboys and cowgirls! The NOAA data’s been streaming in from various sensors in the Pacific and Siberia along with model comparisons of “analog years” with similar numbers and it’s all looking good. Currently we’re in a La Nina Watch, which is essentially where we were last year at this time with above average precipitation expected across most of Montana. The lower than average temperature predictions run in a line across the Northwestern – North/Central regions of the state which is great news for places like Whitefish Mountain Resort where they racked up the most snow in the state last winter in excess of 400”. Those pics below are from last February at the Fish... Although all of us at OpenSnow heavily discount these various seasonal predictions, they actually have a better than average chance of actually delivering the goods than not. Once again I’m skeptically optimistic!

SUMMARY

Two important features of last winter’s 15-30% above average snowpack in Montana (with a few micro exceptions…) were La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (i.e., colder-than-normal water) combined with large pools of cold water that formed in the Northern Pacific early in the season. It’s highly likely that a La Nina will once again solidify this winter in the equatorial Pacific but signals coming from the Northern Pacific look a tad different with a mixed bag of warm and cold pockets. Still, the Fed’s …ah, excuse me, NOAA have declared a Dec – Feb precipitation prediction that runs 40% above average normal across all of Montana’s mountain regions. The all important temperature predictions look to be 40% below average (colder) than norms – but, for areas roughly north of I-90. This is what skiers and riders at Whitefish, Lookout, Blacktail, Turner, and the Little Belt’s unsung powder magnet Showdown, want to hear. Areas in the vicinity and south of I-90 are currently forecasted to be at equal chance (EC) of seasonal temp norms. That should not matter much as most areas south of I-90 have much higher base elevations than areas to the north, so their normal rain/snow lines are mostly below base elevations.

CURRENT SHORT TERM FORESCAST & OBSERVATIONS

So, here we are in late October and we’re bracing for our first significant winter storm of the fall, complete with a strong push of arctic air. This major shift in the weather pattern starts Weds Nov 1^st and looks to bring in a series of Pacific storms that will likely combine with the arctic air, generally north of the I-90 corridor, and bring potential mountain snowfall totals of 1 – 3 feet across most mountain ranges of the State by Sunday. This forecast hauntingly (its Halloween) aligns with the La Nina Winter season predictions. It may be a precursor of things to come! Snotel sights around Western Montana currently range from 4” at Lost Trail to “9 at the top of Whitefish. Definitely below average but things will certainly change by Sunday. East of the Divide, there is slightly more snowpack with around 14” in high country south of Big Sky and around 9” on the ridge tops near Bridger Bowl. These snowpack numbers have declined a bit over the last week as high-pressure has provided above average temps in the alpine. Look to see these Eastside numbers to increase by feet by early next week. Make sure to keep Ullr fat and happy! He starts getting hungry around Nov 1^st!!

Powder Out!

Take a look at the maps below that illustrate what’s happening in the Pacific:

Sadly, beloved Rocky Mountain Front ski area Teton Pass will not open this season due to financial reasons.