Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 10 years ago January 22, 2014

Summary:

Still no faith in significant storms despite the forecast models still showing a change in the pattern at the end of the month.

Details:

Dry conditions will continue for the next week.  A system will push into the West Coast to our North next Tuesday Wednesday keeping us out of any precip.  The next system will push into the coast by the end of next week.  The forecast models are still waffling on whether or not the precip will make it this far South.

Long-Range:

We have been cautiously optomistic about a change in the pattern at the end of the month.  The GFS and European ensembles continue to show a trough along the West Coast by the end of the month replacing the mean ridge.  As I have been saying though that doesn't mean we will see a significant storm, it just means a more favorable pattern than the ridge that has been sitting along the West Coast.  

gfs

The operational models are still waffling on storms pushing into CA through the first week of February. The long-range climate models failed miserably with the forecast for the second half of January for precip back in December.  The long-range on the ensemble runs did slightly better in predicting the pattern change we saw January 7-11 that brought light snowfall.  The climate models are showing average to slightly above average precip for February and the ensembles are showing a shift in the pattern.  The question is will they score like they did in January and we see pattern changes but they bring only light amounts of precip.

Look at the trend.  Here is the last 30 days for Feb precip.

last 30 days feb precip

Now the last 3 days...

last 3 days feb precip

We all know how inaccurate models get the further out in time you go.  What is so frustrating about this Winter so far is that we are constantly in the inaccurate long-range of the models looking for any sign of a storm.  We pick up on signals that could mean something positive, or the climate models do and show increased precip.  But then as inaccurate as they are in the long-range they have lived up to that reputation this Winter so far.  There is nothing driving the pattern this Winter for CA without an El Nino or La Nina and the MJO has been quiet.  The warm water in the NE Pacific is helping to keep the ridge along the West Coast and a trough in the East. 

For now things are still looking good on the long-range ensemble runs and climate models for February, but we'll see what happens.  We can't trust anything until a storm makes it into the 7 day window on the operational runs.  Stay tuned...BA

P.S.  Some of you have been mentioning January's have been dry the last several years and I was thinking the same.  I put together the average snowfall by month for the last 8 seasons.  While Dec, Feb, & Mar have all averaged slightly above the 4 month average, January is significantly less snowy, and March has been the snowiest month.  Interesting...

Last 8 seasons by month

 

About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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