Summary:

A cold front will move through today with rain and mountain snow.  Snow levels will drop near 7000 ft. during the quick precip event and then close to lake level after most of the precip moves out.  An inch or two of snow is possible above 7000 ft. and a few inches above 8000 ft.  The ridge rebuilds off the coast with dry conditions this week and then another cool system could bring several inches of snow to the mountains next weekend.

Details:

The cold front is working its way across Northern CA this morning.  It will move through Tahoe area this afternoon and evening.  The forecast models show the precip band falling apart as it crosses the area.  Still, we should see some light rain showers in the basin.  Up along the crest on the West side of the basin we could see an inch or two of snow above 7000 ft. as high snow levels drop near 7000 ft. with the front.  Above 8000 ft. a few inches could accumulate.  The European model holds onto the showers a little longer tonight and has a better chance of a few inches of snow on the mountains.  On the East side of the basin a dusting of snow is possible on the mountains.

The ridge rebuilds off the coast this week keeping the storms to our North into the Pacific NW.  The forecast models are in good agreement that the ridge shifts East and a trough digs down the West Coast next weekend.  What happens with the system moving into the West Coast changes run to run on the models and we are still a week out.  Right now they show the potential for a cold system with several inches of snow on the mountains and some snow possible to lake level next weekend.  Should have a better idea in a couple of days.  

Long-Range:

The pattern looks like it could stay active into November.  The European weeklies forecast from Thursday had trough after trough pushing into the West Coast with the ridge staying up over Alaska in November.  The CFSv2 model runs the last few days are drier than they were a few days ago for November, but the 10 day average is still for normal or better precip in November.  Right now I am feeling good about November, mainly because none of the models show a big ridge keeping us dry for weeks.  Fingers crossed....

Stay tuned....BA